Hellas Verona 1-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Hellas Verona vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Inter at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 3.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 4.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Inter have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.68 xG and Inter 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 1.023 / defence 1.326 | Inter attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.519. Data: 1 Hellas Verona games / 1 Inter games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 23% | Inter 39%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.63 | Draw 4.35 | Inter 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.68 / 1.71) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 4.5 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 38% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 23% | Inter 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 67% | xG Hellas Verona 1.68 / Inter 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 1.023 / def 1.326 | Inter attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.519 • Poisson stance: Inter (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Inter xG
67%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Inter kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 27 August 2021 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Hellas Verona 1 - 3 Inter.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Inter part of?
Hellas Verona vs Inter is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 38% chance of winning, Inter a 39% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Hellas Verona and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 3.00 | L5 L. Inter (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 4.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (1.02) and Inter's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
38%
2.63
23%
4.41
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
3.39
1.71
Inter xG
2.63
38%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.00
Clean Sheet
18%
5.54
19%
5.37
Win to Nil
7%
14.58
7%
13.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 5.8 | 4.9 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.71 for Inter, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.00 PPG on a 0W 0D 1L record — L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Inter's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Inter, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 4.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Hellas Verona's scoring rate against Inter's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Inter in 0%.
Defensively: Inter in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Inter
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Inter have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Hellas Verona or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Inter in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2023, when Inter won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 100% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 0% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Hellas Verona's matches and 100% of Inter's.
Do Hellas Verona and Inter tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Inter in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Hellas Verona.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Hellas Verona 1-3 at Stadio Marc'Antonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.68 xG and Inter 1.71 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 1.02 / defence 1.33 against Inter attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 38% | Draw 23% | Inter 39%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 100%, Inter 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Hellas Verona managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Inter managed 3 against a 4.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.