Hellas Verona 2-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Hellas Verona take on Cagliari.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi plays host to Hellas Verona versus Cagliari in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 26 October 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Hellas Verona (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Cagliari have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cagliari away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Hellas Verona, 1.10 for Cagliari — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Hellas Verona 2W, Cagliari 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 6 previous contests averaged 1.7 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2025, ended 0–2 with Cagliari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 40% versus Cagliari 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Cagliari 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.81 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.708 / defence 0.982 | Cagliari attack 0.932 / defence 0.958. League average goals — home 1.197 / away 1.060. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.708 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 45 Hellas Verona games / 45 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 27% | Draw 38% | Cagliari 35%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.70 | Draw 2.63 | Cagliari 2.86. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 40% | Cagliari 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Oct 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 27% | Draw 38% | Cagliari 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Hellas Verona 0.81 / Cagliari 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.708 / def 0.982 | Cagliari attack 0.932 / def 0.958 | league avg home 1.197 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Cagliari xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 26 October 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Hellas Verona 2 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari part of?
Hellas Verona vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 27% chance of winning, Cagliari a 35% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Hellas Verona and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Record (6 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 2W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.71x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cagliari's attack (0.93x) against Hellas Verona's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.75
38%
2.63
35%
2.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
1.78
0.97
Cagliari xG
3.75
27%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
2.83
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.89
16%
6.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 16.3 | 7.9 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 0.97 for Cagliari, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 10W 11D 24L from 45 games, a 0.91 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 23L across 45 games — 0.98 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.91 PPG for Hellas Verona against 0.98 for Cagliari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 4W 7D 11L from 22 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 4W 6D 12L across 22 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.02 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Cagliari
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 11D 24L in their last 45 games (0.91 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 11W 11D 23L in their last 45 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Cagliari away?
Hellas Verona's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.86 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cagliari won 4-0 on 31 Jan 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cagliari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
3
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Cagliari have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Cagliari 4-0 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Cagliari?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 36%, Cagliari 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Hellas Verona) and 41% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 54% of games; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 54% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 41% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Cagliari tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Hellas Verona and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Cagliari finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.81 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Cagliari attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 27% | Draw 38% | Cagliari 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Cagliari 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Cagliari's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.91 PPG, Cagliari 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.