Genoa 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Torino have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Torino are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Genoa 1W, Torino 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2023, ended 0–1 with Torino winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 44% versus Torino 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 39% | Torino 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.12 xG and Torino 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.921 / defence 1.010 | Torino attack 0.786 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.056. Data: 19 Genoa games / 57 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 33% | Torino 26%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Torino 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Torino (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 31% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 70% | Torino 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Jan 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 33% | Torino 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Genoa 1.12 / Torino 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.921 / def 1.010 | Torino attack 0.786 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Genoa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Torino xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Torino kick off?
Genoa vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Torino?
Genoa 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Genoa vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Torino part of?
Genoa vs Torino is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 41% chance of winning, Torino a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Genoa and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Torino 2W.
What form are Genoa and Torino in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Torino (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.79x) against Genoa's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 19/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
41%
2.44
33%
3.05
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.96
0.84
Torino xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Genoa and 0.84 for Torino, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 26W 17D 14L from 57 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 19L across 57 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Genoa against 1.40 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 15W 10D 3L from 28 games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.05 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Torino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Torino in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 26W 17D 14L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Torino have gone 21W 17D 19L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Torino away?
Genoa's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.96 PPG; Torino away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Genoa or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Torino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won 3-0 on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 2, Torino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 39%, Torino 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Genoa and 39% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Torino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Genoa's recent matches and 46% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Torino tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Torino in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, as Genoa and Torino drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.12 xG and Torino 0.84 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Torino landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Torino attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 41% | Draw 33% | Torino 26%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Torino 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.67 PPG, Torino 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.