Genoa 0-0 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 41%, yet in-form Torino provide a compelling counter-argument — this Genoa vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Torino in Serie A (matchday 20). Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genoa's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Torino's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling, Torino have posted 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Torino are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Torino edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2023, ended Genoa 0–1 Torino — a Torino win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 26 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 44% versus Torino 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 39% | Torino 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Torino have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.12 xG and Torino 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.921 / defence 1.010 | Torino attack 0.786 / defence 0.898. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.056. Torino's attack rating of 0.786 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Genoa's last 19 games and Torino's last 57.
Result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 33% | Torino 26%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.44 | Draw 3.05 | Torino 3.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Torino (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.96 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 69% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 70% (last 10 home games) | Torino 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, matchday 20 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 13 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 33% | Torino 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% (Under 69%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Genoa 1.12 / Torino 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.921 / def 1.010 | Torino attack 0.786 / def 0.898 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.056 • Poisson stance: Genoa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Torino xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Torino FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Torino kick off?
Genoa vs Torino kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 13 January 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Torino?
Genoa 0 - 0 Torino.
Where is Genoa vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Torino part of?
Genoa vs Torino is a Serie A fixture (matchday 20) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 41% chance of winning, Torino a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Genoa and Torino will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Genoa vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (69%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Genoa's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.79x) against Genoa's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 19 games and Torino's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
41%
2.44
33%
3.05
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Genoa xG
Total xG
1.96
0.84
Torino xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.55
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
18%
5.64
9%
11.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 11.8 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 13.2 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Torino Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Genoa and 0.84 for Torino, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa's recent record stands at 26W 17D 14L from 57 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Torino, meanwhile, have gone 21W 17D 19L across 57 games — 1.40 PPG, with D-W-D-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Genoa against 1.40 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 15W 10D 3L from their last 28 home games — 1.96 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Torino's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across their last 28 away games, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 1.05 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Torino in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
Genoa (Home) vs Torino (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Genoa vs Torino Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Torino in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 26W 17D 14L in their last 57 games (1.67 PPG), while Torino have gone 21W 17D 19L in their last 57 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Torino away?
Genoa's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.96 PPG; Torino away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Genoa or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Torino in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 22 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Genoa won Genoa 3-0 Torino on 22 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 2D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Genoa
3
Draws
3
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Torino H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Torino?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 2, Torino have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Torino last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 February 2026: Genoa 3-0 Torino.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 57% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Torino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 39%, Torino 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for Genoa and 39% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches; Torino in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Torino Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Torino matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Genoa's recent matches and 46% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Genoa and Torino matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Genoa's recent games and 39% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Torino matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 71% of Genoa's recent matches and 68% of Torino's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Genoa's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 20, as Genoa and Torino drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.12 xG and Torino 0.84 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Torino landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.92 / defence 1.01 against Torino attack 0.79 / defence 0.90, drawn from 19/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 41% | Draw 33% | Torino 26%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Torino 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.67 PPG, Torino 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Torino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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