Genoa vs Lecce – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Lecce fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Sunday 31 January 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Genoa have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Lecce's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Genoa 3W, Lecce 2W, 2D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 7 previous contests averaged 1.6 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2026, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Lecce goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Lecce 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 50% | Lecce 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.56 xG and Lecce 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.894 / defence 0.872 | Lecce attack 0.878 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.503. Data: 48 Genoa games / 48 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 47% | Draw 25% | Lecce 28%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.13 | Draw 4.00 | Lecce 3.57. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 50% | Lecce 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Jan 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 47% | Draw 25% | Lecce 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Genoa 1.56 / Lecce 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.894 / def 0.872 | Lecce attack 0.878 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: Genoa (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Lecce xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lecce kick off?
Genoa vs Lecce is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 January 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lecce part of?
Genoa vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 47% chance of winning, Lecce a 28% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Genoa and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lecce?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 3W | Draws 2 | Lecce 2W.
What form are Genoa and Lecce in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Lecce (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lecce's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.88x) against Genoa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
47%
2.14
25%
3.97
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.71
1.15
Lecce xG
2.14
47%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
15%
6.75
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.0 | 6.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Genoa and 1.15 for Lecce, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 48 games, going 14W 12D 22L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.98 PPG from 48 outings (13W 8D 27L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.12 PPG for Genoa against 0.98 for Lecce. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 9W 4D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 1.00 points per game from 24 outings (7W 3D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.81 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lecce in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 14W 12D 22L in their last 48 games (1.12 PPG), while Lecce have gone 13W 8D 27L in their last 48 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lecce away?
Genoa's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.29 PPG; Lecce away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 1 November 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Genoa
2
Draws
2
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lecce?
From 7 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Lecce have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 1 November 2026, when Lecce 1-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Lecce?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 50%, Lecce 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Genoa) and 38% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 33% of games; Lecce in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Genoa's recent matches and 33% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Genoa's recent games and 38% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lecce tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Lecce in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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