Genoa 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Empoli have collected 0.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 2D 8L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Genoa's 1.40 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Empoli's 0.20 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Genoa, 0 for Empoli and 4 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 5 previous contests averaged 1.8 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Dec 2024, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Genoa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Empoli 41%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 41% | Empoli 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.70 xG and Empoli 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.926 / defence 0.883 | Empoli attack 0.968 / defence 1.401. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.204. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.401 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 64 Genoa games / 64 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 4.76. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Empoli 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 51% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Genoa 1.70 / Empoli 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.926 / def 0.883 | Empoli attack 0.968 / def 1.401 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Genoa (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Empoli xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Empoli kick off?
Genoa vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 2 March 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Genoa 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Genoa vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Empoli part of?
Genoa vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 51% chance of winning, Empoli a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Genoa and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
Record (5 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 4 | Empoli 0W.
What form are Genoa and Empoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-L. Empoli (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.70 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.93x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.40x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.97x) against Genoa's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
51%
1.94
27%
3.70
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.73
1.03
Empoli xG
1.94
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.44
4%
25.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Genoa and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Genoa and 1.03 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Genoa come into this having played 64 games, going 19W 22D 23L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-W-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 0.89 PPG from 64 outings (13W 18D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Genoa against 0.89 for Empoli. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Genoa's home form reads 11W 12D 9L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.41 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.91 points per game from 32 outings (7W 8D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.80 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Empoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 19W 22D 23L in their last 64 games (1.23 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 18D 33L in their last 64 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Empoli away?
Genoa's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.41 PPG; Empoli away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Genoa
5
Draws
0
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Empoli have won 0, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Empoli?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 53%, Empoli 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Genoa) and 44% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Genoa's recent matches and 53% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Genoa's recent games and 44% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Empoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Empoli in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 27, as Genoa and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.70 xG and Empoli 1.03 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.93 / defence 0.88 against Empoli attack 0.97 / defence 1.40, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 51% | Draw 27% | Empoli 21%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Empoli 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.23 PPG, Empoli 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.