Genoa 3-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 25 January 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Luigi Ferraris: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Genoa) versus 0.90 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Genoa have won 2, Bologna 2, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2025, ended 1–2 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.9 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Bologna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 46% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.12 xG and Bologna 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.900 / defence 1.028 | Bologna attack 1.278 / defence 1.048. League average goals — home 1.186 / away 1.144. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.50 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Genoa games / 59 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Bologna 46%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.57 | Draw 3.85 | Bologna 2.17. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 40% | Bologna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Jan 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Bologna 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Genoa 1.12 / Bologna 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.900 / def 1.028 | Bologna attack 1.278 / def 1.048 | league avg home 1.186 / away 1.144 • Poisson stance: Bologna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Bologna kick off?
Genoa vs Bologna kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 January 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Genoa 3 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Genoa vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Bologna part of?
Genoa vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 28% chance of winning, Bologna a 46% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Genoa and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 3 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Genoa and Bologna in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Bologna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.3%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
28%
3.54
26%
3.89
46%
2.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.62
1.50
Bologna xG
3.54
28%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.17
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
6%
15.91
15%
6.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 10.9 | 8.2 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.8 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Genoa and 1.50 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 14W 21D 24L from 59 games, a 1.07 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 24W 20D 15L across 59 games — 1.56 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.49 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 7W 11D 12L from 30 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 10W 11D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.37 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.47 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Bologna in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 14W 21D 24L in their last 59 games (1.07 PPG), while Bologna have gone 24W 20D 15L in their last 59 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.07 PPG; Bologna away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Genoa or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Bologna in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Genoa
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Bologna?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 47%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Genoa) and 57% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 37% of games; Bologna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Genoa's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Genoa's recent games and 57% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Bologna tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Bologna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Genoa defy the odds to beat Bologna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Bologna 3-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.12 xG and Bologna 1.50 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.90 / defence 1.03 against Bologna attack 1.28 / defence 1.05, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 28% | Draw 26% | Bologna 46%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.07. Form was overturned, with Genoa winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.