Fiorentina 4-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Fiorentina at 70% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fiorentina vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Salernitana in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 11 December 2021 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 5W 0D 2L across 7 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.43 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.14 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana away from home this season: 1W 1D 6L from 8 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Fiorentina. A 0.80 PPG lead over Salernitana (1.50 vs 0.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games).
Salernitana half-time and goal-timing data (16 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 56% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 62% versus Salernitana 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 75% | Salernitana 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.40 xG and Salernitana 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.380 / defence 1.116 | Salernitana attack 0.560 / defence 1.373. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.460. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.380 — their λ of 2.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Salernitana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.373 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Fiorentina games / 16 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 70% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 13%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.43 | Draw 5.88 | Salernitana 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (70%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fiorentina at 70% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 71% | Salernitana 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Dec 2021, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 70% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 54% | xG Fiorentina 2.40 / Salernitana 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.380 / def 1.116 | Salernitana attack 0.560 / def 1.373 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.460 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.40
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Salernitana xG
54%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Salernitana kick off?
Fiorentina vs Salernitana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 11 December 2021 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Fiorentina 4 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Fiorentina vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Salernitana part of?
Fiorentina vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 70% chance of winning, Salernitana a 13% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fiorentina and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Salernitana?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Salernitana in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Salernitana (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.38) and Salernitana's defence rating (1.37), the model arrives at 2.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.56x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
70%
1.42
17%
5.80
13%
7.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.40
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.31
0.91
Salernitana xG
1.42
70%
Home win
5.80
17%
Draw
7.97
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
9%
10.97
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
1%
87.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.0 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.6 | 4.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.4 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 2.40 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.91 for Salernitana, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Salernitana?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fiorentina come into this having played 16 games, going 9W 0D 7L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.50 PPG from 16 outings (2W 2D 12L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.19 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fiorentina's home form reads 5W 0D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.57 points per game from 7 outings (1W 1D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fiorentina are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.69 scored and 2.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 9W 0D 7L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 2W 2D 12L in their last 16 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Salernitana away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.14 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Fiorentina go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 4-0 on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Salernitana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
1
Draws
1
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Salernitana?
From 6 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Salernitana have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2024, when Salernitana 0-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Salernitana?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 86% of the time.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 71%, Salernitana 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Fiorentina and 57% for Salernitana. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Salernitana in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Salernitana?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Fiorentina's games and 43% of Salernitana's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Fiorentina's matches and 57% of Salernitana's.
Do Fiorentina and Salernitana tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Salernitana.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Salernitana 4-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.40 xG and Salernitana 0.91 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Salernitana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.38 / defence 1.12 against Salernitana attack 0.56 / defence 1.37, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 70% | Draw 17% | Salernitana 13%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 70%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 75%, Salernitana 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Salernitana's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.