Fiorentina 3-2 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Artemio Franchi plays host to Fiorentina versus Cremonese in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Sunday 14 August 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Fiorentina (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Fiorentina haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Cremonese have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cremonese haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cremonese away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for Fiorentina, 1.60 for Cremonese — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Fiorentina half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 60% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.71 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.047 / defence 0.872 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.398. Data: 38 Fiorentina games / 0 Cremonese games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 22%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Cremonese 4.55. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 10% | Cremonese 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 52% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 53% | xG Fiorentina 1.71 / Cremonese 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.047 / def 0.872 | Cremonese attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.398 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cremonese xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Cremonese kick off?
Fiorentina vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Fiorentina 3 - 2 Cremonese.
Where is Fiorentina vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Cremonese part of?
Fiorentina vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 52% chance of winning, Cremonese a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Fiorentina and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fiorentina and Cremonese in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.05) and Cremonese's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.71 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cremonese's attack (0.85x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
52%
1.91
25%
3.96
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.74
1.04
Cremonese xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
18%
5.50
Win to Nil
19%
5.38
4%
24.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 11.4 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.04 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fiorentina come into this having played 38 games, going 19W 5D 14L for 1.63 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-L-W. Fiorentina haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.82 PPG from 38 outings (20W 9D 9L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five. Cremonese haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.82 for Cremonese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Fiorentina's home form reads 13W 2D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.16 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.63 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.50 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Pre-Season
Cremonese
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 19W 5D 14L in their last 38 games (1.63 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 9D 9L in their last 38 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Cremonese away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.16 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Fiorentina go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 1-4 on 16 Mar 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cremonese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Fiorentina
0
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 4, Cremonese have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Cremonese 1-4 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Cremonese?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 37%, Cremonese 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Fiorentina) and 53% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 16% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Cremonese in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 53% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Fiorentina's matches and 53% of Cremonese's.
Do Fiorentina and Cremonese tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Cremonese 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Cremonese 3-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.71 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cremonese outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.05 / defence 0.87 against Cremonese attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 52% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 22%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 60%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Cremonese's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.63 PPG, Cremonese 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.