Fiorentina 1-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 March 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Fiorentina against 0.90 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Fiorentina, 0 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2021, ended 3–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 59% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 70% | Bologna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.99 xG and Bologna 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.316 / defence 1.026 | Bologna attack 0.704 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.346. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.316 — their λ of 1.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 Fiorentina games / 27 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 25% | Bologna 16%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.69 | Draw 4.00 | Bologna 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (59%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 40% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Mar 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 59% | Draw 25% | Bologna 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 56% | xG Fiorentina 1.99 / Bologna 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.316 / def 1.026 | Bologna attack 0.704 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.99
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Bologna xG
56%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 13 March 2022 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Fiorentina 1 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 59% chance of winning, Bologna a 16% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Bologna 0W.
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Bologna (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.32x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.99 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.70x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
59%
1.70
25%
3.96
16%
6.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.99
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.96
0.97
Bologna xG
1.70
59%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
6.32
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
14%
7.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
2%
46.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.99 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.97 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 27 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 13W 4D 10L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 9W 6D 12L from 27 games, 1.22 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.22 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 2.00 PPG from 13 outings (8W 2D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.59 PPG overall — Fiorentina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Bologna have gone 3W 3D 7L from 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.19 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 13W 4D 10L in their last 27 games (1.59 PPG), while Bologna have gone 9W 6D 12L in their last 27 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Fiorentina's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 2.00 PPG; Bologna away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 54%, Bologna 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 85% for Fiorentina and 69% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Fiorentina's games and 62% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 85% of Fiorentina's matches and 69% of Bologna's.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Bologna in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Bologna 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Bologna 1-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.99 xG and Bologna 0.97 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.32 / defence 1.03 against Bologna attack 0.70 / defence 1.35, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 59% | Draw 25% | Bologna 16%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 70%, Bologna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Bologna's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.59 PPG, Bologna 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.