Fiorentina 3-2 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. The match kicks off on Sunday 18 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Artemio Franchi. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.80 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Fiorentina, 4 for Bologna and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 54% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 55% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Bologna 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.110 / defence 0.786 | Bologna attack 0.850 / defence 1.107. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Fiorentina's defence rating of 0.786 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 74 Fiorentina games / 74 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 5.26. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 30% | Bologna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Fiorentina 1.48 / Bologna 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.110 / def 0.786 | Bologna attack 0.850 / def 1.107 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Bologna xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Fiorentina 3 - 2 Bologna.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 54% chance of winning, Bologna a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Fiorentina 3W | Draws 0 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 1.11x the league average against Bologna's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.85x) against Fiorentina's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
54%
1.87
28%
3.61
19%
5.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.25
0.77
Bologna xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.35
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
25%
4.01
4%
23.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.0 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.77 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 34W 17D 23L record — D-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Bologna's form line: 34W 28D 12L from 74 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.61 PPG for Fiorentina against 1.76 for Bologna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.95 PPG from 37 outings (21W 9D 7L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 12W 16D 9L from 37 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.46 scored and 0.99 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 34W 17D 23L in their last 74 games (1.61 PPG), while Bologna have gone 34W 28D 12L in their last 74 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.95 PPG; Bologna away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bologna in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 57%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Fiorentina) and 51% (Bologna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Fiorentina's games and 54% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Fiorentina's matches and 51% of Bologna's.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Bologna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Bologna 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Bologna 3-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Bologna 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 0.79 against Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.61 PPG, Bologna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.