Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Atalanta fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Atalanta at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 17 April 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Fiorentina — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fiorentina have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Artemio Franchi — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Atalanta have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Atalanta's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Fiorentina have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 2, Atalanta 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.7 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 0–1 with Atalanta winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fiorentina trading profile (67 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Atalanta trading profile (67 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 52% versus Atalanta 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 51% | Atalanta 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.24 xG and Atalanta 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.977 / defence 1.002 | Atalanta attack 1.147 / defence 1.041. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.152. Data: 67 Fiorentina games / 67 Atalanta games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 39%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Atalanta 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fiorentina (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Atalanta offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.7 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 80% | Atalanta 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Atalanta | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 17 Apr 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 35% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Fiorentina 1.24 / Atalanta 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.977 / def 1.002 | Atalanta attack 1.147 / def 1.041 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Atalanta xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Atalanta kick off?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 17 April 2023 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Fiorentina 1 - 1 Atalanta.
Where is Fiorentina vs Atalanta being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Atalanta part of?
Fiorentina vs Atalanta is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 35% chance of winning, Atalanta a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fiorentina and Atalanta will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Atalanta have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 0 | Atalanta 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Atalanta in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Atalanta (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.98) and Atalanta's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.24 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Atalanta's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 67/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
35%
2.88
27%
3.76
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.56
1.32
Atalanta xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
27%
3.76
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
9%
10.83
11%
8.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.6 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Atalanta expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.32 for Atalanta, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina come into this having played 67 games, going 30W 13D 24L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D.
On the other side, Atalanta sit at 1.60 PPG from 67 outings (30W 17D 20L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.54 PPG, Atalanta on 1.60. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Fiorentina's home form reads 19W 7D 8L across 34 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return.
Away from home, Atalanta have taken 1.94 points per game from 34 outings (20W 6D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Atalanta are on 1.67 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Atalanta
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Atalanta in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 30W 13D 24L in their last 67 games (1.54 PPG), while Atalanta have gone 30W 17D 20L in their last 67 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Atalanta away?
Atalanta's away record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.88 PPG; Atalanta away: 1.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Atalanta runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Atalanta specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
2
Draws
3
Atalanta
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Atalanta have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Atalanta last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Atalanta?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 50%, Atalanta 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 50% (Atalanta).
On the defensive side: Fiorentina keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Atalanta in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Atalanta away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Atalanta?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 50% of Atalanta's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Atalanta usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fiorentina's recent games and 50% of Atalanta's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Atalanta tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Atalanta in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fiorentina and Atalanta share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 30, as Fiorentina and Atalanta drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.24 xG and Atalanta 1.32 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Atalanta attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 35% | Draw 27% | Atalanta 39%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 51%, Atalanta 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (67 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Atalanta's trading profile (67 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.54 PPG, Atalanta 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.