Empoli 0-1 Torino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Torino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus Torino in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off: Friday 13 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Torino (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Torino's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Empoli's 1.00 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Torino's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Empoli 1W, Torino 2W, 3D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.3 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2024, ended 3–2 with Empoli winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Empoli half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Torino half-time and goal-timing data (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 36% versus Torino 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 32% | Torino 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.96 xG and Torino 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.668 / defence 0.797 | Torino attack 0.839 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.353 / away 1.292. Empoli's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Empoli games / 53 Torino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Torino 31%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | Torino 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Empoli if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Torino 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Torino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Friday 13 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Torino 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Empoli 0.96 / Torino 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.668 / def 0.797 | Torino attack 0.839 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.353 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Torino xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Torino kick off?
Empoli vs Torino kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 December 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Torino?
Empoli 0 - 1 Torino.
Where is Empoli vs Torino being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Torino part of?
Empoli vs Torino is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Torino?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 36% chance of winning, Torino a 31% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Torino?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Empoli and Torino will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Torino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Torino?
Record (6 meetings): Empoli 1W | Draws 3 | Torino 2W.
What form are Empoli and Torino in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-W. Torino (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Torino's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.96. Flip it around — Torino's attack (0.84x) against Empoli's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
36%
2.74
32%
3.08
31%
3.22
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.83
0.86
Torino xG
2.74
36%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
3.22
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.79
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
38%
2.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.51
12%
8.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.0 | 13.9 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Torino?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Torino expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Empoli and 0.86 for Torino, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Torino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 53 outings, Empoli have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 13W 16D 24L record — W-D-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torino's form line: 17W 18D 18L from 53 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. The sample for Torino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.04 PPG for Empoli against 1.30 for Torino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Empoli have posted 1.04 PPG from 26 outings (6W 9D 11L).
On the road, Torino have gone 7W 7D 12L from 26 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.81 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Torino are on 0.98 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Torino in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Torino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Torino in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 16D 24L in their last 53 games (1.04 PPG), while Torino have gone 17W 18D 18L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Torino away?
Torino's away record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.04 PPG; Torino away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Empoli or Torino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Torino in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Torino go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Torino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Empoli
3
Draws
4
Torino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Torino?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Torino have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Torino last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2025, when Torino 1-0 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Torino?
Torino have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Torino see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Empoli) and 42% (Torino) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Empoli and 38% for Torino.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 62% of games; Torino in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Torino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Torino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Empoli's recent matches and 42% of Torino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Torino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Empoli's recent games and 38% of Torino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Torino defy the odds to beat Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Torino beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.96 xG and Torino 0.86 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.67 / defence 0.80 against Torino attack 0.84 / defence 1.07, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 36% | Draw 32% | Torino 31%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Torino win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 32%, Torino 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 51% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Torino's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.04 PPG, Torino 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Torino win broke the near-deadlock. Torino (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.