Empoli 3-0 Monza – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Monza at 48% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Monza encounter.

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Analysis

Monza make the trip to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena to face Empoli in Serie A (matchday 21). The match kicks off on Sunday 21 January 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Current Form

Empoli's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Empoli's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Monza (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Monza's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Monza arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.20 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Monza edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended Empoli 0–2 Monza — a Monza win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Monza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 58 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Monza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 36% | Monza 41%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Empoli surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while Monza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.91 xG and Monza 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.670 / defence 1.345 | Monza attack 0.982 / defence 0.962. League average goals — home 1.415 / away 1.079. Empoli's attack rating of 0.670 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.91. Empoli's defence rating of 1.345 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monza's projected output up. Data: built from Empoli's last 58 games and Monza's last 58.

Result probabilities: Empoli 23% | Draw 29% | Monza 48%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 4.32 | Draw 3.47 | Monza 2.08. Monza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Monza are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Monza if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Empoli 20% (last 10 home games) | Monza 40% (last 10 away games).

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