Empoli 1-2 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Empoli take on Genoa.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Empoli and Genoa meet at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Empoli, 1.10 for Genoa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Empoli have seen both teams score in just 20% of their matches, Genoa in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Empoli 0W, Genoa 0W, 4D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Empoli — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 51% of games.
Genoa — key trading statistics (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 36% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Empoli 33% | Genoa 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.75 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.624 / defence 0.789 | Genoa attack 0.765 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.330. Empoli's attack strength of 0.624 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Empoli games / 55 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Genoa 2.94. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 20% | BTTS probability 29% | Total xG 1.56. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 80% probability — total xG of 1.56 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 71% — Empoli's lower xG of 0.75 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 29%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 20% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 29% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 31% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 20% | BTTS 29% | xG Empoli 0.75 / Genoa 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.624 / def 0.789 | Genoa attack 0.765 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.330 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Genoa xG
29%
BTTS
46%
Over 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Genoa kick off?
Empoli vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 December 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Empoli 1 - 2 Genoa.
Where is Empoli vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Genoa part of?
Empoli vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 31% chance of winning, Genoa a 34% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 29% probability that both Empoli and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 20%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 4 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Empoli and Genoa in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-L. Genoa (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Empoli's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.75. Flip it around — Genoa's attack (0.77x) against Empoli's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 22.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.27
36%
2.78
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
21.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.56
0.80
Genoa xG
3.27
31%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
46%
Over 1.5
2.17
54%
Under 1.5
1.85
20%
Over 2.5
5.00
80%
Under 2.5
1.25
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
29%
BTTS Yes
3.43
71%
BTTS No
1.41
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
47%
2.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.30
16%
6.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 21.1 | 17.0 | 6.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.9 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.0 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Empoli and 0.80 for Genoa, a combined total of 1.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Empoli come into this having played 55 games, going 13W 16D 26L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Genoa sit at 1.18 PPG from 55 outings (15W 20D 20L), a run that reads D-W-D-D-L across their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for Empoli against 1.18 for Genoa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Empoli's home form reads 6W 9D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Genoa have taken 1.12 points per game from 26 outings (7W 8D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Empoli are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.07 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Genoa in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 16D 26L in their last 55 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 15W 20D 20L in their last 55 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Genoa away?
Genoa's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.04 PPG; Genoa away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 0W 2D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Genoa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Empoli
5
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Genoa?
From 6 meetings on record, Empoli have won 0, Genoa have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Genoa 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Empoli see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 23% (Empoli) and 46% (Genoa) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 27% for Empoli and 38% for Genoa.
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 62% of games; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Empoli's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Empoli's recent games and 38% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Empoli 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.75 xG and Genoa 0.80 xG, a combined 1.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Genoa outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 0.79 against Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 0.90, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 31% | Draw 36% | Genoa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 20%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 46% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 33%, Genoa 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.00 PPG, Genoa 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.