Empoli 2-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Empoli vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Carlo Castellani to take on Empoli. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 November 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stadio Carlo Castellani — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 0W 7D 3L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Empoli at 1.10 PPG versus Cremonese's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Empoli register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Cremonese in 90% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 60% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 48% | Cremonese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.25 xG and Cremonese 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.746 / defence 1.084 | Cremonese attack 1.008 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.121. Empoli's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.25 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Empoli's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Empoli games / 14 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 35%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 2.78 | Draw 3.45 | Cremonese 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Empoli as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 60% | Cremonese 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani • Kick-off: Friday 11 Nov 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 36% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Empoli 1.25 / Cremonese 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.746 / def 1.084 | Cremonese attack 1.008 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Empoli (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Cremonese xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Cremonese kick off?
Empoli vs Cremonese kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 November 2022 at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Cremonese?
Empoli 2 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is Empoli vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
What competition is Empoli vs Cremonese part of?
Empoli vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 36% chance of winning, Cremonese a 35% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Empoli and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Empoli and Cremonese in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Cremonese (all comps): 0W-7D-3L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.25. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
36%
2.77
29%
3.45
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.48
1.23
Cremonese xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.42
10%
10.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 10.3 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Empoli and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Empoli and 1.23 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 52 games, going 13W 16D 23L for 1.06 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.46 PPG from 52 outings (20W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Empoli on 1.06 PPG, Cremonese on 1.46. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 6W 7D 13L across 26 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.31 points per game from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L).
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.31 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Cremonese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 16D 23L in their last 52 games (1.06 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 16D 16L in their last 52 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.96 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.31 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Cremonese runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Empoli
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Cremonese?
From 2 meetings on record, Empoli have won 1, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2023, when Cremonese 1-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Empoli at 73%, Cremonese at 62%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Empoli) and 54% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of Empoli's games and 62% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Empoli vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Empoli's matches and 54% of Cremonese's.
Do Empoli and Cremonese tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Cremonese 2-0 at Stadio Carlo Castellani, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.25 xG and Cremonese 1.23 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.75 / defence 1.08 against Cremonese attack 1.01 / defence 1.23, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 36% | Draw 29% | Cremonese 35%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 48%, Cremonese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cremonese's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Empoli 1.06 PPG, Cremonese 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Empoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.