Empoli 1-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Empoli vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 22 as Empoli welcome Bologna to Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 January 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Empoli have posted 1W 4D 5L at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W L D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Bologna — 1.20 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Empoli have won 3, Bologna 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Empoli in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Bologna in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 41% versus Bologna 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 36% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.94 xG and Bologna 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.660 / defence 1.068 | Bologna attack 1.234 / defence 1.045. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.297. Empoli's attack strength of 0.660 is below the league average — the 0.94 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna have an above-average attack strength of 1.234 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 59 Empoli games / 58 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 19% | Draw 28% | Bologna 54%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.26 | Draw 3.57 | Bologna 1.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.65 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 30% | Bologna 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jan 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 19% | Draw 28% | Bologna 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Empoli 0.94 / Bologna 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.660 / def 1.068 | Bologna attack 1.234 / def 1.045 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Bologna (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Bologna xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Bologna kick off?
Empoli vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 25 January 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Bologna?
Empoli 1 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Empoli vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Bologna part of?
Empoli vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 19% chance of winning, Bologna a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Empoli and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bologna?
Record (7 meetings): Empoli 3W | Draws 2 | Bologna 2W.
What form are Empoli and Bologna in?
Empoli (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Bologna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.66x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.7%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
19%
5.36
28%
3.64
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.65
1.71
Bologna xG
5.36
19%
Home win
3.64
28%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
18%
5.53
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
3%
29.61
21%
4.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 12.1 | 10.4 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Empoli and 1.71 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 58 outings, Empoli have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 13W 17D 28L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 26W 23D 9L from 58 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.77 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Empoli.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Empoli have posted 0.96 PPG from 28 outings (6W 9D 13L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 10W 12D 6L from 28 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.48 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Bologna in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 17D 28L in their last 58 games (0.97 PPG), while Bologna have gone 26W 23D 9L in their last 58 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.96 PPG; Bologna away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Empoli or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Bologna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2023, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Empoli
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2025, when Empoli 1-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and Bologna?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 29%, Bologna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Empoli) and 61% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 57% of games; Bologna in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Bologna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Empoli's recent matches and 57% of Bologna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Empoli's recent games and 61% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Bologna tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Bologna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli and Bologna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli and Bologna finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.94 xG and Bologna 1.71 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.66 / defence 1.07 against Bologna attack 1.23 / defence 1.04, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 19% | Draw 28% | Bologna 54%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 36%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.