Empoli 0-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Empoli face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
AS Roma (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 2.10 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 5 wins from 7 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Empoli winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.7 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 42% versus AS Roma 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 37% | AS Roma 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.623 / defence 1.311 | AS Roma attack 0.924 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.231. Empoli's attack strength of 0.623 is below the league average — the 0.78 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 65 Empoli games / 65 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 17% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 52%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 5.88 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 1.92. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Empoli 40% | AS Roma 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Mar 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 17% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Empoli 0.78 / AS Roma 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.623 / def 1.311 | AS Roma attack 0.924 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.49
AS Roma xG
44%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Empoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 March 2025 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Empoli 0 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Empoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs AS Roma part of?
Empoli vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 17% chance of winning, AS Roma a 52% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Empoli and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
Record (7 meetings): Empoli 2W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in?
Empoli (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.92x) against Empoli's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 1.49.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
17%
5.72
30%
3.29
52%
1.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.27
1.49
AS Roma xG
5.72
17%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
1.92
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
25.42
24%
4.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 15.5 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.0 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Empoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Empoli and 1.49 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 13W 19D 33L from 65 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 30W 16D 19L across 65 games — 1.63 PPG, with D-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 6W 10D 16L from 32 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 9W 11D 12L across 32 trips, a 1.19 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.65 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 13W 19D 33L in their last 65 games (0.89 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 30W 16D 19L in their last 65 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 0.88 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Empoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, AS Roma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
0
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, AS Roma have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 28%, AS Roma 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Empoli) and 53% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 59% of games; AS Roma in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Empoli's recent matches and 62% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Empoli's recent games and 53% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.78 xG and AS Roma 1.49 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.62 / defence 1.31 against AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.94, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 17% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 52%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 52%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 37%, AS Roma 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.63 PPG against 0.89. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.