Cremonese 1-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Udinese at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Udinese in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 20 October 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 4W 5D 1L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Udinese (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Udinese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Udinese's away record: 4W 1D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 1.60 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Udinese's 1.10 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Cremonese 0W, Udinese 1W, 1D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2023, ended 0–3 with Udinese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 68% and Udinese 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 59% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.928 / defence 1.152 | Udinese attack 1.033 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.065. Data: 6 Cremonese games / 44 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 32% | Draw 31% | Udinese 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.12 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Udinese as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Cremonese (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.44 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 60% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Monday 20 Oct 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 32% | Draw 31% | Udinese 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Cremonese 1.18 / Udinese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.928 / def 1.152 | Udinese attack 1.033 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Udinese (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Udinese xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Udinese kick off?
Cremonese vs Udinese kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 20 October 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Udinese?
Cremonese 1 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Cremonese vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Udinese part of?
Cremonese vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 32% chance of winning, Udinese a 37% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Udinese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cremonese and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Udinese?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Udinese in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-D-L. Udinese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.93x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (1.03x) against Cremonese's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 6/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Udinese Win
32%
3.08
31%
3.26
37%
2.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.44
1.27
Udinese xG
3.08
32%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
2.72
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
31%
3.24
Win to Nil
9%
10.93
11%
8.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.0 | 7.0 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 7.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.27 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 44 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.61 PPG on a 18W 17D 9L record — W-D-D-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Udinese's form line: 14W 10D 20L from 44 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-D. It's still early in the season for Udinese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.62 PPG from 21 outings (8W 10D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 7W 4D 10L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.07 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cremonese have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 44 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Udinese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Udinese in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 18W 17D 9L in their last 44 games (1.61 PPG), while Udinese have gone 14W 10D 20L in their last 44 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Udinese away?
Cremonese's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.62 PPG; Udinese away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Udinese won 3-0 on 23 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Udinese?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Udinese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Udinese 0-1 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Cremonese, 62% for Udinese — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cremonese) and 52% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Udinese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Udinese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cremonese's games and 62% of Udinese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cremonese's recent games and 52% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Udinese tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Udinese in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Udinese attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 32% | Draw 31% | Udinese 37%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 59%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Udinese's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.