Cremonese 0-0 Sassuolo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cremonese vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Giovanni Zini plays host to Cremonese versus Sassuolo in Serie A, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 4 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Giovanni Zini this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Cremonese are significantly better at Stadio Giovanni Zini than their overall form suggests.
Sassuolo (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cremonese have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Sassuolo in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading Data
Cremonese goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sassuolo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 85% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cremonese 60% and Sassuolo 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Sassuolo 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.44 xG and Sassuolo 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.821 / defence 1.241 | Sassuolo attack 1.124 / defence 1.275. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.079. Sassuolo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.275 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 4 Cremonese games / 42 Sassuolo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 36%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Sassuolo 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.44 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.95 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 80% | Sassuolo 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 33% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 63% | xG Cremonese 1.44 / Sassuolo 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.821 / def 1.241 | Sassuolo attack 1.124 / def 1.275 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Sassuolo xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Sassuolo kick off?
Cremonese vs Sassuolo kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Sassuolo?
Cremonese 0 - 0 Sassuolo.
Where is Cremonese vs Sassuolo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Sassuolo part of?
Cremonese vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 33% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Cremonese and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sassuolo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cremonese and Sassuolo in?
Cremonese (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.82x the league average against Sassuolo's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (1.12x) against Cremonese's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 4/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
33%
3.03
31%
3.19
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.95
1.50
Sassuolo xG
3.03
33%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
22%
4.50
24%
4.23
Win to Nil
7%
13.67
8%
11.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.9 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.4 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.2 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.50 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cremonese's recent record stands at 20W 9D 13L from 42 games, a 1.64 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 13D 15L across 42 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Cremonese against 1.31 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 6D 3L from 20 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sassuolo's away record stands at 6W 6D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.60 scored and 1.69 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sassuolo in 74%.
Last 42 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 9D 13L in their last 42 games (1.64 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 14W 13D 15L in their last 42 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Sassuolo away?
Cremonese's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.95 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.20 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 1-4 on 31 Aug 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
2
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Sassuolo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Sassuolo have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Sassuolo 1-0 Cremonese.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 65% for Cremonese, 80% for Sassuolo — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Cremonese and 85% for Sassuolo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Sassuolo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Cremonese's games and 80% of Sassuolo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Cremonese's matches and 85% of Sassuolo's.
Do Cremonese and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cremonese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese and Sassuolo finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.44 xG and Sassuolo 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cremonese fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Sassuolo landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.82 / defence 1.24 against Sassuolo attack 1.12 / defence 1.27, drawn from 4/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 33% | Draw 31% | Sassuolo 36%, with Sassuolo to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Sassuolo 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Sassuolo's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.64 PPG, Sassuolo 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Sassuolo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.