Cremonese 0-2 Lecce – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lecce at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 21 as Cremonese welcome Lecce to Stadio Giovanni Zini. Kick-off is set for Saturday 4 February 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese's home record at Stadio Giovanni Zini: 0W 3D 7L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Lecce — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Lecce's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Cremonese's 0.40 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Lecce and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cremonese trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Lecce trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 57% versus Lecce 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 48% | Lecce 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.88 xG and Lecce 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.632 / defence 1.291 | Lecce attack 0.658 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.192. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.632 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 20 Cremonese games / 20 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 32% | Lecce 37%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Lecce 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lecce are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lecce offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.89 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 38%. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 40% | Lecce 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Feb 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 30% | Draw 32% | Lecce 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 38% | xG Cremonese 0.88 / Lecce 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.632 / def 1.291 | Lecce attack 0.658 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.192 • Poisson stance: Lecce (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Lecce xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Lecce kick off?
Cremonese vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 4 February 2023 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Lecce?
Cremonese 0 - 2 Lecce.
Where is Cremonese vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Lecce part of?
Cremonese vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 30% chance of winning, Lecce a 37% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lecce the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Cremonese and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecce?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 1W | Draws 1 | Lecce 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Lecce in?
Cremonese (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Lecce (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cremonese's attacking strength (0.63x league average) is weighed against Lecce's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. The same calculation in reverse, Lecce's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lecce Win
30%
3.32
32%
3.08
37%
2.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Cremonese xG
Total xG
1.89
1.01
Lecce xG
3.32
30%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.67
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.67
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 15.3 | 7.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.01 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 20W 17D 21L from 58 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce, meanwhile, have gone 23W 22D 13L across 58 games — 1.57 PPG, with W-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cremonese on 1.33 PPG, Lecce on 1.57. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 11W 9D 9L from 29 games — 1.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lecce's away record stands at 8W 12D 9L across 29 trips, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 1.34 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Lecce in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 games (1.33 PPG), while Lecce have gone 23W 22D 13L in their last 58 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Lecce away?
Cremonese's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.45 PPG; Lecce away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Aug 2021, when Cremonese won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Lecce specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
3
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Lecce have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lecce 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Lecce?
Lecce have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 55%, Lecce 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cremonese) and 31% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: Cremonese have failed to score in 31% of games; Lecce in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cremonese's recent matches and 48% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cremonese's recent games and 31% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Lecce tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Lecce in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lecce cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cremonese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lecce beat Cremonese 0-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.88 xG and Lecce 1.01 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lecce outscored their 1.01 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.63 / defence 1.29 against Lecce attack 0.66 / defence 0.99, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 30% | Draw 32% | Lecce 37%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 37%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 48%, Lecce 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lecce's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.33 PPG, Lecce 1.57 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lecce win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward. Lecce (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.