Cagliari 3-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Venezia travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Sunday 18 May 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Unipol Domus, Cagliari have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Venezia's away record: 0W 7D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Cagliari) versus 1.20 (Venezia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cagliari register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Venezia in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Cagliari, 2 for Venezia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2024, ended 1–2 with Venezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Venezia trading profile (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 60% versus Venezia 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Venezia 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.53 xG and Venezia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.026 / defence 1.185 | Venezia attack 0.830 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.147. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 74 Cagliari games / 36 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 46% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Venezia 3.70. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 60% | Venezia 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 18 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 46% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Cagliari 1.53 / Venezia 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.026 / def 1.185 | Venezia attack 0.830 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Venezia xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Venezia kick off?
Cagliari vs Venezia kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 May 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Cagliari 3 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Cagliari vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Venezia part of?
Cagliari vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 46% chance of winning, Venezia a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cagliari and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
Record (6 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 3 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.03) and Venezia's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 74/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.74
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.66
1.13
Venezia xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.74
27%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
22%
4.62
Win to Nil
15%
6.74
6%
16.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 12.1 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.2 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.13 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 74 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 16W 21D 37L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Venezia's form line: 27W 20D 27L from 74 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Put side by side, Venezia are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.19 PPG from 37 outings (11W 11D 15L).
On the road, Venezia have gone 8W 13D 16L from 37 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.31 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Venezia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Venezia in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 21D 37L in their last 74 games (0.93 PPG), while Venezia have gone 27W 20D 27L in their last 74 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Venezia away?
Cagliari's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.19 PPG; Venezia away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Venezia won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Venezia?
From 7 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2025, when Cagliari 3-0 Venezia.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 68%, Venezia 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Cagliari) and 57% (Venezia). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 27% of games; Venezia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 54% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cagliari's matches and 57% of Venezia's.
Do Cagliari and Venezia tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Venezia in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Venezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Venezia 3-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.53 xG and Venezia 1.13 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Venezia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.03 / defence 1.19 against Venezia attack 0.83 / defence 1.24, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 46% | Draw 27% | Venezia 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Venezia 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Venezia's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Venezia arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.