Cagliari 1-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Inter travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 2W 3D 5L at Unipol Domus — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Inter have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Inter — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Cagliari have won 0, Inter 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 12 Dec 2021, ended 0–4 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Inter in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 61% versus Inter 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 53% | Inter 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.76 xG and Inter 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.734 / defence 1.179 | Inter attack 0.977 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.111 / away 1.334. Cagliari's attack strength of 0.734 is below the league average — the 0.76 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Cagliari games / 36 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 17% | Draw 28% | Inter 55%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 5.88 | Draw 3.57 | Inter 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Inter (55%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 60% | Inter 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 15 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 17% | Draw 28% | Inter 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Cagliari 0.76 / Inter 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.734 / def 1.179 | Inter attack 0.977 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.111 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Inter (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.76
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Inter xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Inter kick off?
Cagliari vs Inter kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 15 May 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Cagliari 1 - 3 Inter.
Where is Cagliari vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Inter part of?
Cagliari vs Inter is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 17% chance of winning, Inter a 55% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cagliari and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Inter in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Inter (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 0.73x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 0.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-2 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
17%
5.84
28%
3.55
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.9%
Away win
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.76
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.29
1.54
Inter xG
5.84
17%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
47%
2.13
Win to Nil
4%
27.19
26%
3.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 15.5 | 11.9 | 6.1 | 2.4 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 11.7 | 9.0 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.76 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.54 for Inter, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.81 PPG on a 6W 11D 19L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 23W 9D 4L from 36 games, 2.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.36 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 0.83 PPG from 18 outings (3W 6D 9L).
On the road, Inter have gone 10W 6D 2L from 18 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.81 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.17 scored and 0.86 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Inter in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Inter in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 6W 11D 19L in their last 36 games (0.81 PPG), while Inter have gone 23W 9D 4L in their last 36 (2.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.83 PPG; Inter away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 6% of their recent games, Inter in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Inter have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Dec 2021, when Inter won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 0D 4L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Cagliari
1
Draws
7
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 0, Inter have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Inter 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 28% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 72%, Inter at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Cagliari) and 56% (Inter). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Inter in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Inter?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Cagliari's games and 61% of Inter's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cagliari's matches and 56% of Inter's.
Do Cagliari and Inter tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Inter in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Cagliari 1-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.76 xG and Inter 1.54 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Inter outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.73 / defence 1.18 against Inter attack 0.98 / defence 0.93, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 17% | Draw 28% | Inter 55%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.