Cagliari 3-3 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Cagliari welcome Genoa to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Saturday 22 November 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 3W 2D 5L at Unipol Domus — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Cagliari) versus 0.60 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Cagliari, 3 for Genoa and 4 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 49% versus Genoa 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 45% | Genoa 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.13 xG and Genoa 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.870 / defence 1.150 | Genoa attack 1.102 / defence 1.113. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.035. Data: 49 Cagliari games / 49 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Genoa 39%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.33 | Draw 3.23 | Genoa 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | Genoa 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Genoa 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Cagliari 1.13 / Genoa 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.870 / def 1.150 | Genoa attack 1.102 / def 1.113 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Genoa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Genoa xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Genoa kick off?
Cagliari vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Cagliari 3 - 3 Genoa.
Where is Cagliari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Genoa part of?
Cagliari vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 30% chance of winning, Genoa a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cagliari and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
Record (8 meetings): Cagliari 1W | Draws 4 | Genoa 3W.
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in?
Cagliari (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Genoa (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.87) and Genoa's defence rating (1.11), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 0-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
30%
3.31
31%
3.23
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.44
1.31
Genoa xG
3.31
30%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
27%
3.71
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.27
12%
8.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 11.4 | 7.5 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.3 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.8 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.31 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.94 PPG on a 11W 13D 25L record — L-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 11W 17D 21L from 49 games, 1.02 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 0.94 PPG, Genoa on 1.02. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.08 PPG from 24 outings (7W 5D 12L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 6W 7D 11L from 24 away games — 1.04 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 0.92 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 13D 25L in their last 49 games (0.94 PPG), while Genoa have gone 11W 17D 21L in their last 49 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Genoa away?
Cagliari's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.08 PPG; Genoa away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Genoa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cagliari
5
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 46%, Genoa 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 38% of games; Genoa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Cagliari's recent matches and 54% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Genoa tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Genoa share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Genoa finished level at 3-3 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.13 xG and Genoa 1.31 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Genoa outscored their 1.31 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.87 / defence 1.15 against Genoa attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 30% | Draw 31% | Genoa 39%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 45%, Genoa 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.94 PPG, Genoa 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.