Cagliari 2-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Cagliari welcome Genoa to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 5 November 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 5W 2D 3L at Unipol Domus — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Cagliari are significantly better at Unipol Domus than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Genoa stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Genoa's 1.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Cagliari, 2 for Genoa and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Genoa in-play tendencies (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 54% versus Genoa 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 46% | Genoa 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.43 xG and Genoa 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.959 / defence 1.586 | Genoa attack 0.714 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.324 / away 1.183. Data: 10 Cagliari games / 10 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 39% | Draw 25% | Genoa 35%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.56 | Draw 4.00 | Genoa 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Genoa (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Genoa 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Nov 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 39% | Draw 25% | Genoa 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Cagliari 1.43 / Genoa 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.959 / def 1.586 | Genoa attack 0.714 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.324 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Genoa xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Genoa kick off?
Cagliari vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Cagliari vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Genoa part of?
Cagliari vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 39% chance of winning, Genoa a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Cagliari and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 2 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (0.96) and Genoa's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
39%
2.54
25%
3.93
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.77
1.34
Genoa xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.34 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Cagliari have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 19D 13L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 24W 13D 11L from 48 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-D-L-L-W. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.40 PPG, Genoa on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 1.83 PPG from 24 outings (12W 8D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Genoa have gone 10W 6D 8L from 24 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.33 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Genoa in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 16W 19D 13L in their last 48 games (1.40 PPG), while Genoa have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Genoa away?
Cagliari's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.83 PPG; Genoa away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Genoa in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Genoa runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Cagliari
5
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Genoa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Genoa have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 71%, Genoa 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cagliari) and 46% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 33%; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Cagliari's games and 42% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cagliari's recent games and 46% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and Genoa tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Genoa in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Genoa 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Genoa 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.43 xG and Genoa 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.96 / defence 1.59 against Genoa attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 39% | Draw 25% | Genoa 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 46%, Genoa 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Genoa's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.40 PPG, Genoa 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.