Cagliari 0-2 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Empoli at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Empoli travel to Unipol Domus to take on Cagliari. The game is scheduled for Wednesday 22 September 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.75 goals per game, with 2.75 conceded. However, 2.75 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Cagliari have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Empoli have recorded 1W 0D 3L from 4 outings — 0.75 PPG. Last five: L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.75 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 4 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cagliari at 0.50 PPG versus Empoli's 0.75. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 50% of cases; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games; Over 3.5 in 100%.
Empoli in-play and half-time data (4 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 100% and Empoli 50% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Cagliari 100% | Empoli 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.24 xG and Empoli 1.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.999 / defence 1.360 | Empoli attack 0.799 / defence 0.999. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.583. Data: 4 Cagliari games / 4 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 49%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.57 | Draw 4.17 | Empoli 2.04. Empoli hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Empoli are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Empoli offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.96 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 100% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Wednesday 22 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 58% | xG Cagliari 1.24 / Empoli 1.72 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.999 / def 1.360 | Empoli attack 0.799 / def 0.999 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.583 • Poisson stance: Empoli (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.72
Empoli xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Empoli kick off?
Cagliari vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 22 September 2021 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Empoli?
Cagliari 0 - 2 Empoli.
Where is Cagliari vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Empoli part of?
Cagliari vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 28% chance of winning, Empoli a 49% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Empoli the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Cagliari and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Empoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cagliari and Empoli in?
Cagliari (all comps): 0W-2D-2L in 4 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.75 / GA 2.75 | L5 D-L-L-D. Empoli (all comps): 1W-0D-3L in 4 | 0.75 PPG | GF 0.75 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.00x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Empoli's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Empoli Win
28%
3.62
24%
4.21
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.96
1.72
Empoli xG
3.62
28%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
18%
5.58
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
5%
20.21
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.9 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.72 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 0W 2D 2L from 4 games, a 0.50 PPG return, with D-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cagliari, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 3L across 4 games — 0.75 PPG, with L-W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 0.50 PPG, Empoli on 0.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 2.75 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.75 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games.
Last 4 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Empoli in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L in their last 4 games (0.50 PPG), while Empoli have gone 1W 0D 3L in their last 4 (0.75 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Empoli runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Empoli specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cagliari
3
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Empoli?
From 6 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Empoli have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Empoli 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 100%, Empoli at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Cagliari and 75% for Empoli. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 100% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cagliari's games and 50% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Cagliari's matches and 75% of Empoli's.
Do Cagliari and Empoli tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Empoli in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Empoli cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat Cagliari 0-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 5, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.24 xG and Empoli 1.72 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.00 / defence 1.36 against Empoli attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 28% | Draw 24% | Empoli 49%, with Empoli to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 88% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 100%, Empoli 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
Empoli's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.50 PPG, Empoli 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Empoli win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Empoli scored 2 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.