Cagliari 2-1 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 52% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs Bologna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Unipol Domus plays host to Cagliari versus Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Tuesday 11 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Cagliari (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cagliari have posted 1W 4D 5L at Unipol Domus — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Bologna have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 0D 5L. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 4L across 9 road games this term (1.22 PPG). Away from home they average 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Bologna are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cagliari 0W, Bologna 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2021, ended 0–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Cagliari — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 78% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Bologna — key trading statistics (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 58% versus Bologna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 58% | Bologna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.16 xG and Bologna 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.793 / defence 1.392 | Bologna attack 0.813 / defence 1.240. League average goals — home 1.175 / away 1.563. Cagliari's attack strength of 0.793 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Bologna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.240 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Cagliari games / 19 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 25% | Draw 24% | Bologna 52%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 1.92. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 80% | Bologna 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Tuesday 11 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 25% | Draw 24% | Bologna 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Cagliari 1.16 / Bologna 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.793 / def 1.392 | Bologna attack 0.813 / def 1.240 | league avg home 1.175 / away 1.563 • Poisson stance: Bologna (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Bologna xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Bologna kick off?
Cagliari vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 11 January 2022 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Bologna.
Where is Cagliari vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Bologna part of?
Cagliari vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 25% chance of winning, Bologna a 52% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cagliari and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
Record (1 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Bologna (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (1.24x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (0.81x) against Cagliari's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 20/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
25%
4.03
24%
4.25
52%
1.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.93
1.77
Bologna xG
4.03
25%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
1.93
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
17%
5.87
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
4%
23.66
16%
6.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 9.5 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 11.0 | 9.7 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.77 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Cagliari have picked up 0.63 PPG on a 2W 6D 11L record — D-L-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 8W 3D 8L from 19 games, 1.42 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cagliari.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cagliari have posted 0.67 PPG from 9 outings (1W 3D 5L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 3W 2D 4L from 9 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cagliari are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 2.05 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.42 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Bologna in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 2W 6D 11L in their last 19 games (0.63 PPG), while Bologna have gone 8W 3D 8L in their last 19 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.22 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 0.67 PPG; Bologna away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 5% of their recent games, Bologna in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cagliari
1
Draws
5
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 2, Bologna have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Bologna 0-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Bologna?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 78% for Cagliari, 56% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Cagliari and 67% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bologna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 78% of Cagliari's games and 56% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Cagliari's matches and 67% of Bologna's.
Do Cagliari and Bologna tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Bologna in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Bologna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Bologna 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.16 xG and Bologna 1.77 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.79 / defence 1.39 against Bologna attack 0.81 / defence 1.24, drawn from 20/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 25% | Draw 24% | Bologna 52%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 58%, Bologna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Bologna's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.63. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.