Cagliari 0-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 1 as Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cagliari haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AS Roma haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Cagliari.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 5 Feb 2024, ended 0–4 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
AS Roma trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 66% and AS Roma 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 58% | AS Roma 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.054 / defence 1.119 | AS Roma attack 1.074 / defence 1.013. League average goals — home 1.413 / away 1.183. Data: 38 Cagliari games / 38 AS Roma games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 33%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | AS Roma 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.42) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Cagliari as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form AS Roma (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.93 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 100% | AS Roma 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 37% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 62% | xG Cagliari 1.51 / AS Roma 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.054 / def 1.119 | AS Roma attack 1.074 / def 1.013 | league avg home 1.413 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.42
AS Roma xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs AS Roma kick off?
Cagliari vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Cagliari 0 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Cagliari vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs AS Roma part of?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 37% chance of winning, AS Roma a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cagliari and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
Record (4 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 4W.
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
37%
2.69
30%
3.37
33%
3.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.93
1.42
AS Roma xG
2.69
37%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.01
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
24%
4.14
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
9%
11.15
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.4 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Cagliari and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.42 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 38 games, going 8W 12D 18L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-W-L. Cagliari haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.66 PPG from 38 outings (18W 9D 11L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-L across their last five. AS Roma haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.71 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 6W 7D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.21 points per game from 19 outings (6W 5D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.66 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.71 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games; AS Roma in 63%.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Pre-Season
AS Roma
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 8W 12D 18L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or AS Roma away?
Cagliari's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.32 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 84%, AS Roma at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Cagliari and 68% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 84% of Cagliari's games and 68% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Cagliari's matches and 68% of AS Roma's.
Do Cagliari and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cagliari's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and AS Roma finished level at 0-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.51 xG and AS Roma 1.42 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cagliari fell 1.5 short of their projected output. AS Roma landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.05 / defence 1.12 against AS Roma attack 1.07 / defence 1.01, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 37% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 33%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 58%, AS Roma 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AS Roma's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.