Cagliari 1-4 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 38% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cagliari vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus in Serie A (matchday 8). Kick-off is Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Cagliari have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Cagliari at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cagliari are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
AS Roma — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 1.20 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Cagliari's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 2 H2H matches, Cagliari have won 0, AS Roma 2, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Jan 2022, ended Cagliari 0–1 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (last 45 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus AS Roma 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 42% | AS Roma 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.19 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 0.641 / defence 1.255 | AS Roma attack 0.972 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 1.438 / away 1.066. Cagliari's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.19. AS Roma's defence rating of 1.294 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cagliari's projected output up. Cagliari's defence rating of 1.255 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Cagliari's last 7 games and AS Roma's last 45.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 38%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 3.07 | Draw 3.37 | AS Roma 2.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Cagliari 70% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, matchday 8 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 8 October 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Cagliari 1.19 / AS Roma 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 0.641 / def 1.255 | AS Roma attack 0.972 / def 1.294 | league avg home 1.438 / away 1.066 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.30
AS Roma xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Cagliari vs AS Roma FAQs
What time does Cagliari vs AS Roma kick off?
Cagliari vs AS Roma kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 8 October 2023 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Cagliari 1 - 4 AS Roma.
Where is Cagliari vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs AS Roma part of?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is a Serie A fixture (matchday 8) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 33% chance of winning, AS Roma a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Cagliari and AS Roma will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Cagliari vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (0.64x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (1.29x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Cagliari's last 7 games and AS Roma's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
33%
3.07
30%
3.37
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.49
1.30
AS Roma xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
27%
3.67
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
9%
11.26
11%
8.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Cagliari vs AS Roma Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cagliari and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.30 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 45 games, going 15W 18D 12L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-L.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.58 PPG from 45 outings (20W 11D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cagliari on 1.40 PPG, AS Roma on 1.58. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 11W 8D 3L across their last 22 home games, a 1.86 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.40 PPG overall — Cagliari are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.27 points per game from their last 22 away games (7W 7D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cagliari come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.44 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; AS Roma in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
Cagliari (Home) vs AS Roma (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Cagliari
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Cagliari vs AS Roma Form FAQs
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 15W 18D 12L in their last 45 games (1.40 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 20W 11D 14L in their last 45 (1.58 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or AS Roma away?
Cagliari's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.86 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Cagliari or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, AS Roma in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 9 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 5 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 27 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: AS Roma have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won AS Roma 4-0 Cagliari.
Cagliari's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
7
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Cagliari vs AS Roma H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Cagliari have won 1, AS Roma have won 7, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Cagliari and AS Roma last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 October 2026: AS Roma 4-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 68%, AS Roma at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cagliari) and 50% (AS Roma).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Cagliari vs AS Roma Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Cagliari and AS Roma matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Cagliari's games and 68% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Cagliari and AS Roma matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Cagliari's recent games and 50% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and AS Roma matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Cagliari's recent matches and 82% of AS Roma's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cagliari 1-4 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.19 xG and AS Roma 1.30 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.64 / defence 1.25 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 1.29, drawn from 7/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 33% | Draw 30% | AS Roma 38%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 42%, AS Roma 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
AS Roma's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cagliari 1.40 PPG, AS Roma 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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