Bologna 2-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Udinese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Udinese make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Udinese (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Bologna against 1.50 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Bologna lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Udinese — key trading statistics (32 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 44% versus Udinese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.822 / defence 0.994 | Udinese attack 0.838 / defence 1.449. League average goals — home 1.049 / away 1.251. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.449 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 32 Bologna games / 32 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 31% | Udinese 29%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 39% | Draw 31% | Udinese 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 48% | xG Bologna 1.25 / Udinese 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.822 / def 0.994 | Udinese attack 0.838 / def 1.449 | league avg home 1.049 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Bologna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Udinese xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Udinese kick off?
Bologna vs Udinese kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Bologna 2 - 2 Udinese.
Where is Bologna vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Udinese part of?
Bologna vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 39% chance of winning, Udinese a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bologna and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 1 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Bologna and Udinese in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.82) and Udinese's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Udinese's attack (0.84x) against Bologna's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
39%
2.53
31%
3.20
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.29
1.04
Udinese xG
2.53
39%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
35%
2.84
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
8%
11.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bologna and 1.04 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 10W 8D 14L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Udinese's form line: 9W 12D 11L from 32 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Bologna against 1.22 for Udinese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.40 PPG from 15 outings (6W 3D 6L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 5D 7L from 15 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.47 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Udinese
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Udinese in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 10W 8D 14L in their last 32 games (1.19 PPG), while Udinese have gone 9W 12D 11L in their last 32 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Udinese away?
Bologna's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.40 PPG; Udinese away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Bologna or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Udinese in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 3-0 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Udinese — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
5
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Udinese have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2026, when Bologna 1-0 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Udinese?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 27%, Udinese 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Bologna) and 53% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 40% of games; Udinese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 27% of Bologna's recent matches and 53% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Bologna's recent games and 53% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Udinese tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Udinese in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Udinese share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 34, as Bologna and Udinese drew 2-2 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.25 xG and Udinese 1.04 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 1.04 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.82 / defence 0.99 against Udinese attack 0.84 / defence 1.45, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 39% | Draw 31% | Udinese 29%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.19 PPG, Udinese 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.