Bologna 2-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bologna (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Bologna face Spezia.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Spezia at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 27 January 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Bologna — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Spezia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Spezia have posted 3W 0D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Bologna, 0 for Spezia and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Spezia in-play tendencies (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Spezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 53% | Spezia 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.32 xG and Spezia 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.945 / defence 0.967 | Spezia attack 0.824 / defence 0.981. League average goals — home 1.426 / away 1.147. Data: 57 Bologna games / 57 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 28% | Spezia 26%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.17 | Draw 3.57 | Spezia 3.85. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 70% | Spezia 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Spezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Friday 27 Jan 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 28% | Spezia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 44% | xG Bologna 1.32 / Spezia 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.945 / def 0.967 | Spezia attack 0.824 / def 0.981 | league avg home 1.426 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Bologna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Spezia xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Spezia kick off?
Bologna vs Spezia kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 27 January 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Spezia?
Bologna 2 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Bologna vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Spezia part of?
Bologna vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 46% chance of winning, Spezia a 26% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bologna and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Spezia?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 1 | Spezia 0W.
What form are Bologna and Spezia in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D. Spezia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.94x the league average against Spezia's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
46%
2.17
28%
3.56
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.24
0.91
Spezia xG
2.17
46%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
40%
2.49
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
18%
5.41
7%
14.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 12.9 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bologna and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Bologna and 0.91 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 18W 15D 24L from 57 games, a 1.21 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 31L across 57 games — 0.95 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.21 PPG, Spezia on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 11W 8D 9L from 28 games — 1.46 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Spezia's away record stands at 7W 3D 18L across 28 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.02 scored and 1.77 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Spezia in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 18W 15D 24L in their last 57 games (1.21 PPG), while Spezia have gone 14W 12D 31L in their last 57 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Spezia away?
Bologna's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.46 PPG; Spezia away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 January 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bologna
1
Draws
0
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Spezia have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 27 January 2023, when Bologna 2-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Spezia?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Spezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Spezia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 61% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Spezia in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 46% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 61% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Spezia tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Spezia in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Spezia 2-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.32 xG and Spezia 0.91 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spezia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.94 / defence 0.97 against Spezia attack 0.82 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 46% | Draw 28% | Spezia 26%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 53%, Spezia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.21 PPG, Spezia 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Bologna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.