Bologna vs Sassuolo – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sassuolo at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Sassuolo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Sassuolo meet at in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 September 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Sassuolo have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sassuolo have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sassuolo away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Bologna, who have won 4 of the last 8 meetings against Sassuolo — a 3D 1W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.9 per game across 8 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2026, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Bologna and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sassuolo — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 42% versus Sassuolo 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 42% | Sassuolo 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.11 xG and Sassuolo 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.861 / defence 1.012 | Sassuolo attack 0.937 / defence 1.108. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Data: 40 Bologna games / 40 Sassuolo games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 37%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.94 | Draw 3.57 | Sassuolo 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sassuolo as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sassuolo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Sassuolo 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Sassuolo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Sep 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 34% | Draw 28% | Sassuolo 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Bologna 1.11 / Sassuolo 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.861 / def 1.012 | Sassuolo attack 0.937 / def 1.108 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sassuolo (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Sassuolo xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Sassuolo kick off?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 September 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Sassuolo part of?
Bologna vs Sassuolo is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 34% chance of winning, Sassuolo a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sassuolo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bologna and Sassuolo will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Sassuolo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Record (8 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 3 | Sassuolo 1W.
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Sassuolo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bologna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Sassuolo's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Sassuolo's attack (0.94x) against Bologna's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sassuolo Win
34%
2.91
28%
3.51
37%
2.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.28
1.17
Sassuolo xG
2.91
34%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.69
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
31%
3.22
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.9 | 7.0 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.4 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Sassuolo expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Bologna and 1.17 for Sassuolo, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Sassuolo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.40 PPG on a 16W 8D 16L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sassuolo's form line: 15W 7D 18L from 40 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Sassuolo, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.40 PPG for Bologna against 1.30 for Sassuolo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (6W 4D 10L).
On the road, Sassuolo have gone 5W 5D 10L from 20 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Sassuolo are on 1.23 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Sassuolo
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Sassuolo in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Sassuolo have gone 15W 7D 18L in their last 40 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Sassuolo away?
Bologna's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Sassuolo away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Bologna or Sassuolo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Sassuolo in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bologna won 0-3 on 22 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Sassuolo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Bologna
3
Draws
1
Sassuolo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Sassuolo?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Sassuolo have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Sassuolo last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Sassuolo 0-1 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Sassuolo?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Sassuolo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 30%, Sassuolo 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 55% (Sassuolo).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games; Sassuolo in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Sassuolo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Sassuolo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bologna's recent matches and 60% of Sassuolo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Sassuolo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 55% of Sassuolo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Sassuolo tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Sassuolo in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.