Bologna 3-3 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inter at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 23 May 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Inter — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Inter away from home this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 away games — 2.30 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.60 PPG, Inter 1.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Bologna's 20% rate and Inter's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bologna, 4 for Inter and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 4 Jan 2026, ended 1–3 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Inter in-play tendencies (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 51% versus Inter 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.72 xG and Inter 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.705 / defence 1.032 | Inter attack 1.479 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.161. Bologna's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.72 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.479 — the away xG of 1.77 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 75 Bologna games / 75 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 15% | Draw 23% | Inter 62%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 6.67 | Draw 4.35 | Inter 1.61. The model has a clear lean to Inter (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Inter 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 23 May 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 15% | Draw 23% | Inter 62% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 43% | xG Bologna 0.72 / Inter 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.705 / def 1.032 | Inter attack 1.479 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.161 • Poisson stance: Inter (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.72
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Inter xG
43%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 23 May 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Inter?
Bologna 3 - 3 Inter.
Where is Bologna vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 15% chance of winning, Inter a 62% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Inter 4W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. Inter (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.70) and Inter's defence rating (0.84), the model arrives at 0.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (13.0%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
15%
6.81
23%
4.38
62%
1.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.6%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
13.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.72
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.49
1.77
Inter xG
6.81
15%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
1.60
62%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
49%
2.06
Win to Nil
2%
40.04
30%
3.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 14.6 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.6 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.72 expected goals for Bologna and 1.77 for Inter, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 75 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 32W 21D 22L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 51W 14D 10L from 75 games, 2.23 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.57 PPG from 37 outings (16W 10D 11L).
On the road, Inter have gone 24W 7D 6L from 37 away games — 2.14 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.20 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 32W 21D 22L in their last 75 games (1.56 PPG), while Inter have gone 51W 14D 10L in their last 75 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.57 PPG; Inter away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Inter in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 23 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Inter 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Bologna) and 46% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Inter in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 35% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Bologna's recent games and 46% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 51% of their recent matches, Inter in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Inter share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Inter finished level at 3-3 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.72 xG and Inter 1.77 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Inter outscored their 1.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.70 / defence 1.03 against Inter attack 1.48 / defence 0.84, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 15% | Draw 23% | Inter 62%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Inter 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.23 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.