Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Hellas Verona make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Sunday 8 March 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season.
Hellas Verona (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.30 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hellas Verona's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in Bologna's favour (1.30 vs 0.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 9 meetings: Bologna 4W, Hellas Verona 3W, 2D.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2026, ended 3–2 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 54% versus Hellas Verona 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Hellas Verona 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.35 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.741 / defence 1.030 | Hellas Verona attack 0.678 / defence 1.435. League average goals — home 1.275 / away 1.190. Bologna's attack strength of 0.741 is below the league average — the 1.35 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Hellas Verona bring a strong defensive rating of 1.435 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Bologna games / 65 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 23%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Hellas Verona 4.35. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Hellas Verona 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Mar 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 49% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Bologna 1.35 / Hellas Verona 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.741 / def 1.030 | Hellas Verona attack 0.678 / def 1.435 | league avg home 1.275 / away 1.190 • Poisson stance: Bologna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Hellas Verona kick off?
Bologna vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 March 2026 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Bologna 1 - 2 Hellas Verona.
Where is Bologna vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Hellas Verona part of?
Bologna vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 49% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Bologna and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Hellas Verona?
Record (9 meetings): Bologna 4W | Draws 2 | Hellas Verona 3W.
What form are Bologna and Hellas Verona in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Hellas Verona (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.74x the league average against Hellas Verona's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Hellas Verona's attack (0.68x) against Bologna's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.58
23%
4.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.19
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
4.35
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
6%
16.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.7 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bologna and 0.83 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Hellas Verona?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 65 games, going 27W 20D 18L for 1.55 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 0.80 PPG from 65 outings (12W 16D 37L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.75 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 15W 9D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.69 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.78 points per game from 32 outings (6W 7D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.83 scored and 1.75 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Hellas Verona
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 27W 20D 18L in their last 65 games (1.55 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 12W 16D 37L in their last 65 (0.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Hellas Verona away?
Bologna's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.69 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.78 PPG.
Have Bologna or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Hellas Verona have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 50%, Hellas Verona 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Bologna) and 50% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bologna's recent matches and 47% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Hellas Verona defy the odds to beat Bologna 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona beat Bologna 1-2 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.35 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 0.83 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.74 / defence 1.03 against Hellas Verona attack 0.68 / defence 1.44, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 49% | Draw 28% | Hellas Verona 23%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Hellas Verona win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Hellas Verona 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.80. Form was overturned, with Hellas Verona winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.78 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.