Bologna 2-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Renato Dall'Ara plays host to Bologna versus Frosinone in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 22 October 2023 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Bologna have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 3W 6D 1L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Frosinone (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone away from home this season: 3W 6D 1L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Bologna against 1.80 for Frosinone. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 59% versus Frosinone 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 50% | Frosinone 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.31 xG and Frosinone 0.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.922 / defence 0.795 | Frosinone attack 0.638 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.401 / away 1.147. Bologna's defence rating of 0.795 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Bologna games / 8 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 53% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 15%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.89 | Draw 3.23 | Frosinone 6.67. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.89. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.89 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Frosinone's lower xG of 0.58 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.89 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 33% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Frosinone 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Oct 2023, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 53% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 33% | xG Bologna 1.31 / Frosinone 0.58 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.922 / def 0.795 | Frosinone attack 0.638 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.401 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Bologna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.58
Frosinone xG
33%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Frosinone kick off?
Bologna vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 22 October 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Frosinone?
Bologna 2 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Bologna vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Frosinone part of?
Bologna vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 53% chance of winning, Frosinone a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bologna and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bologna and Frosinone in?
Bologna (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-D-W-D. Frosinone (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.92) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.64x) against Bologna's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.58.
These ratings are built from 46/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
53%
1.88
31%
3.21
15%
6.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.1%
Draw
2 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.89
0.58
Frosinone xG
1.88
53%
Home win
3.21
31%
Draw
6.46
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.01
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
56%
1.79
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
30%
3.36
4%
23.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.1 | 8.8 | 2.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.8 | 11.5 | 3.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.9 | 7.5 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.3%.
How many goals are Bologna and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Bologna and 0.58 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bologna come into this having played 46 games, going 16W 17D 13L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-W-D. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 2.00 PPG from 46 outings (27W 11D 8L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Bologna's home form reads 9W 9D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.68 points per game from 22 outings (10W 7D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.61 scored and 0.80 conceded.
Defensively: Frosinone in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 17D 13L in their last 46 games (1.41 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 27W 11D 8L in their last 46 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Frosinone away?
Frosinone's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.64 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Frosinone in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Bologna
1
Draws
0
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Frosinone?
From 2 meetings on record, Bologna have won 1, Frosinone have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 7 April 2024, when Frosinone 0-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Frosinone?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Frosinone 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Bologna) and 36% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Frosinone in 36%; Bologna have failed to score in 27% of games; Frosinone in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Bologna's recent games and 36% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Frosinone tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bologna edge out Frosinone 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Frosinone 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.31 xG and Frosinone 0.58 xG, a combined 1.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.92 / defence 0.80 against Frosinone attack 0.64 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 53% | Draw 31% | Frosinone 15%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 50%, Frosinone 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Frosinone arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.41. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.82 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.