Atalanta 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Gewiss Stadium plays host to Atalanta versus Lazio in Serie A (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Atalanta's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lazio have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: D W D L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Atalanta against 1.60 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 3 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Dec 2024, ended Atalanta 1–1 Lazio — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Atalanta goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Lazio goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 52% versus Lazio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 62% | Lazio 53%). Note also that Lazio surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Atalanta recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.46 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.036 / defence 1.013 | Lazio attack 1.057 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.165. Data: built from Atalanta's last 68 games and Lazio's last 68.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 29% | Lazio 31%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.47 | Draw 3.47 | Lazio 3.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.71 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Atalanta 60% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 41% | Draw 29% | Lazio 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% (Under 49%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Atalanta 1.46 / Lazio 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.036 / def 1.013 | Lazio attack 1.057 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.165 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Lazio xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Lazio kick off?
Atalanta vs Lazio kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Lazio?
Atalanta 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Atalanta vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Lazio part of?
Atalanta vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 41% chance of winning, Lazio a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Atalanta and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.04x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.06x) against Atalanta's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 68 games and Lazio's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
41%
2.47
29%
3.47
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.71
1.25
Lazio xG
2.47
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.77
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
12%
8.59
7%
14.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.25 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atalanta's recent record stands at 38W 13D 17L from 68 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five.
Lazio, meanwhile, have gone 33W 14D 21L across 68 games — 1.66 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.87 PPG for Atalanta against 1.66 for Lazio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 20W 6D 7L from their last 33 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lazio's away record stands at 16W 4D 13L across their last 33 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.99 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.47 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
Atalanta (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Atalanta vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Lazio in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 38W 13D 17L in their last 68 games (1.87 PPG), while Lazio have gone 33W 14D 21L in their last 68 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Lazio away?
Atalanta's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.00 PPG; Lazio away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Lazio in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 14 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 1W 2D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
4
Draws
3
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Lazio?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 3, Lazio have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 February 2026: Lazio 0-2 Atalanta.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 35% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 58%, Lazio 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Atalanta and 58% for Lazio. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 27% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Lazio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Atalanta's games and 58% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Atalanta and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Atalanta's matches and 58% of Lazio's.
Do Atalanta and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Atalanta's recent matches and 79% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Lazio defy the odds to beat Atalanta 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Atalanta 0-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.46 xG and Lazio 1.25 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Atalanta fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.04 / defence 1.01 against Lazio attack 1.06 / defence 1.10, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 41% | Draw 29% | Lazio 31%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 62%, Lazio 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Lazio's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.87 PPG, Lazio 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lazio win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.15 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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