Atalanta 1-1 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Cremonese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Cremonese at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Atalanta's home record at Gewiss Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
Atalanta in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 60% versus Cremonese 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 56% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.13 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.186 / defence 1.058 | Cremonese attack 0.935 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.373 / away 1.047. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.309 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Atalanta games / 5 Cremonese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 60% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 15%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.67 | Draw 4.00 | Cremonese 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (60%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Atalanta as the most likely outcome at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Cremonese 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 60% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 59% | xG Atalanta 2.13 / Cremonese 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.186 / def 1.058 | Cremonese attack 0.935 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.373 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.13
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Cremonese xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Cremonese kick off?
Atalanta vs Cremonese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Atalanta 1 - 1 Cremonese.
Where is Atalanta vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Cremonese part of?
Atalanta vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 60% chance of winning, Cremonese a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atalanta and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and Cremonese in?
Atalanta (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.19x the league average against Cremonese's defence at 1.31x — combine the two and it projects 2.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.04 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
60%
1.66
25%
4.06
15%
6.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.6%
Home win
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.13
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.17
1.04
Cremonese xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
6.58
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
35%
2.82
12%
8.43
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
2%
55.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 2.13 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.04 for Cremonese, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Cremonese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Atalanta come into this having played 43 games, going 20W 12D 11L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.63 PPG from 43 outings (20W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 1.67 PPG, Cremonese on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Atalanta's home form reads 5W 9D 7L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.67 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.43 points per game from 21 outings (9W 3D 9L).
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.42 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Cremonese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 20W 12D 11L in their last 43 games (1.67 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 10D 13L in their last 43 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Cremonese away?
Cremonese's away record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.14 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Cremonese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Cremonese runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Atalanta
2
Draws
0
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 2, Cremonese have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Atalanta 2-1 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Cremonese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 71%, Cremonese 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Atalanta) and 57% (Cremonese). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Cremonese?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Atalanta's games and 57% of Cremonese's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Atalanta's matches and 57% of Cremonese's.
Do Atalanta and Cremonese tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atalanta and Cremonese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Cremonese finished level at 1-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.13 xG and Cremonese 1.04 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.19 / defence 1.06 against Cremonese attack 0.94 / defence 1.31, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 60% | Draw 25% | Cremonese 15%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 56%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Cremonese's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.67 PPG, Cremonese 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.