Atalanta 1-2 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Atalanta at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Cagliari encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Cagliari at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 6 February 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Gewiss Stadium, Atalanta have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 2.10 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Gewiss Stadium this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Atalanta have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Atalanta have won 1, Cagliari 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Nov 2021, ended 2–1 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Atalanta in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Cagliari in-play tendencies (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 83% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Atalanta 68% and Cagliari 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 68% | Cagliari 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.76 xG and Cagliari 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.132 / defence 1.111 | Cagliari attack 0.547 / defence 1.391. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.511. Cagliari bring a strong defensive rating of 1.391 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Atalanta games / 23 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 18%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Cagliari 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 70% | Cagliari 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Feb 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 56% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Atalanta 1.76 / Cagliari 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.132 / def 1.111 | Cagliari attack 0.547 / def 1.391 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.511 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cagliari xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Cagliari kick off?
Atalanta vs Cagliari kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 6 February 2022 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Atalanta 1 - 2 Cagliari.
Where is Atalanta vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Cagliari part of?
Atalanta vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 56% chance of winning, Cagliari a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Atalanta and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cagliari?
Record (1 meetings): Atalanta 1W | Draws 0 | Cagliari 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Cagliari in?
Atalanta (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Cagliari (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Atalanta's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Cagliari's defensive record (1.39x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 2-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
56%
1.80
27%
3.76
18%
5.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.68
0.92
Cagliari xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
5.61
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
17%
5.81
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
3%
32.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.1 | 11.1 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Atalanta and 0.92 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Cagliari?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta come into this having played 22 games, going 12W 7D 3L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-D. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Cagliari sit at 0.73 PPG from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.22 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Atalanta's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.95 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Cagliari have taken 0.60 points per game from 10 outings (1W 3D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 0.91 scored and 1.91 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games.
Last 22 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Cagliari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 12W 7D 3L in their last 22 games (1.95 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 3W 7D 12L in their last 22 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Cagliari away?
Atalanta's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.30 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Cagliari in 5%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Atalanta's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Atalanta
1
Draws
3
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Cagliari?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Cagliari have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2026, when Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Cagliari?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 70%, Cagliari 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Atalanta and 50% for Cagliari. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 70% of Atalanta's recent matches and 30% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Atalanta's matches and 50% of Cagliari's.
Do Atalanta and Cagliari tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Atalanta 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Atalanta 1-2 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.76 xG and Cagliari 0.92 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 0.92 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.13 / defence 1.11 against Cagliari attack 0.55 / defence 1.39, drawn from 22/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 56% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 18%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 68%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Cagliari's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Atalanta (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.