Atalanta 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Atalanta host Bologna at Gewiss Stadium in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Atalanta — All Games: 1W 0D 0L from 1 Serie A outings this season, averaging 3.00 points per game. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Atalanta have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Atalanta at 3.00 PPG versus Bologna's 3.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using overall form). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.53 xG and Bologna 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.968 / defence 1.150 | Bologna attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.376 / away 1.618. Data: 1 Atalanta games / 1 Bologna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 37% | Draw 24% | Bologna 39%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Bologna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.11. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.11 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.53 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.11 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 37% | Draw 24% | Bologna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Atalanta 1.53 / Bologna 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.968 / def 1.150 | Bologna attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.376 / away 1.618 • Poisson stance: Bologna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Bologna xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Bologna kick off?
Atalanta vs Bologna kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 28 August 2021 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Atalanta 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Atalanta vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Bologna part of?
Atalanta vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 37% chance of winning, Bologna a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Atalanta and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in?
Atalanta (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Bologna (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 3.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Atalanta's attack rating (0.97) and Bologna's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
37%
2.70
24%
4.20
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Atalanta xG
Total xG
3.11
1.58
Bologna xG
2.70
37%
Home win
4.20
24%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
21%
4.86
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
8%
13.12
8%
11.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 10.8 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.58 for Bologna, a combined total of 3.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 1 outings, Atalanta have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 1W 0D 0L record — W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Atalanta, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna's form line: 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, 3.00 PPG, last five W. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Atalanta on 3.00 PPG, Bologna on 3.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Atalanta are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 3.00 scored and 2.00 conceded. Bologna's attacking output running into Atalanta's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Atalanta have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Bologna in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Bologna in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Bologna have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Atalanta and Bologna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Atalanta's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atalanta
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Atalanta 0-1 Bologna.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Atalanta's games and 100% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Atalanta's matches and 100% of Bologna's.
Do Atalanta and Bologna tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Bologna in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Atalanta's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta and Bologna finished level at 0-0 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.53 xG and Bologna 1.58 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.97 / defence 1.15 against Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 37% | Draw 24% | Bologna 39%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 39%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 100%, Bologna 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 3.00 PPG, Bologna 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Atalanta managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna managed 0 against a 3.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.