AS Roma 2-0 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (46%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Udinese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 9 November 2025, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Udinese have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 1.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of AS Roma: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Udinese, with 1 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 2.9 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 Jan 2025, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Udinese trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 42% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 35% | Udinese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.40 xG and Udinese 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.987 / defence 0.843 | Udinese attack 1.025 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 1.161 / away 1.053. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 AS Roma games / 48 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 31% | Udinese 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.17 | Draw 3.23 | Udinese 4.35. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Udinese 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Nov 2025, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 31% | Udinese 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG AS Roma 1.40 / Udinese 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.987 / def 0.843 | Udinese attack 1.025 / def 1.218 | league avg home 1.161 / away 1.053 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Udinese xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Udinese kick off?
AS Roma vs Udinese kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 9 November 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
AS Roma 2 - 0 Udinese.
Where is AS Roma vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Udinese part of?
AS Roma vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 46% chance of winning, Udinese a 23% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both AS Roma and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
Record (8 meetings): AS Roma 6W | Draws 1 | Udinese 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Udinese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.99) and Udinese's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
46%
2.15
31%
3.24
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.31
0.91
Udinese xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
25%
4.03
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
17.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.7 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.91 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Udinese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 27W 9D 12L from 48 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 16W 11D 21L across 48 games — 1.23 PPG, with D-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 16W 2D 6L from 24 games — 2.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 7W 6D 11L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.10 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Udinese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 27W 9D 12L in their last 48 games (1.88 PPG), while Udinese have gone 16W 11D 21L in their last 48 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Udinese away?
AS Roma's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.08 PPG; Udinese away: 1.12 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Udinese in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Udinese runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Sep 2022, when Udinese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
AS Roma
1
Draws
2
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Udinese have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2026, when Udinese 1-0 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Udinese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 42%, Udinese 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (AS Roma) and 50% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of AS Roma's recent matches and 67% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Udinese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Udinese in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Udinese.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Udinese 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.40 xG and Udinese 0.91 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Udinese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.84 against Udinese attack 1.02 / defence 1.22, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 46% | Draw 31% | Udinese 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 35%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
Udinese's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 1.23. That form edge translated into the three points. Udinese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.