AS Roma 2-2 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 48% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Salernitana encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Salernitana travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 1). The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Roma stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, AS Roma have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — AS Roma are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Salernitana — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Salernitana away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AS Roma at 1.30 PPG versus Salernitana's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of AS Roma: 3 wins from 4 H2H matches against 0 for Salernitana, with 1 draw.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 4 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 22 May 2023, ended AS Roma 2–2 Salernitana — a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both AS Roma and goals — 3 wins from 4 H2H matches and an average of 3.0 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Salernitana in-play tendencies (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 47% versus Salernitana 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 42% | Salernitana 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.59 xG and Salernitana 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.072 / defence 0.945 | Salernitana attack 0.922 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.268. Data: built from AS Roma's last 38 games and Salernitana's last 38. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.06 | Draw 4.00 | Salernitana 3.77. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (AS Roma 3 wins from 4 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 40% (last 10 home games) | Salernitana 70% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (AS Roma 38 games, Salernitana 38) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie A, matchday 1 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 20 August 2023 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 48% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG AS Roma 1.59 / Salernitana 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.072 / def 0.945 | Salernitana attack 0.922 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.268 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Salernitana xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Salernitana FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Salernitana kick off?
AS Roma vs Salernitana kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Sunday 20 August 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Salernitana?
AS Roma 2 - 2 Salernitana.
Where is AS Roma vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Salernitana part of?
AS Roma vs Salernitana is a Serie A fixture (matchday 1) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 48% chance of winning, Salernitana a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both AS Roma and Salernitana will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. The same calculation in reverse, Salernitana's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 38 games and Salernitana's last 38, which are mostly older results — treat them as a rough guide.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
48%
2.06
25%
4.00
27%
3.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.69
1.10
Salernitana xG
2.06
48%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
3.77
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
5%
18.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 11.9 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.4 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Salernitana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.10 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma come into this having played 38 games, going 18W 9D 11L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-L-W.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 1.11 PPG from 38 outings (9W 15D 14L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-L across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.55 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
AS Roma's home form reads 11W 3D 5L across their last 19 home games, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.79 points per game from their last 19 away games (2W 9D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 1.26 scored and 1.63 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Pre-Season
Salernitana
Pre-Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Salernitana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Pre-Season
Salernitana
Pre-Season
❓ AS Roma vs Salernitana Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Salernitana in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 18W 9D 11L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 9W 15D 14L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Salernitana away?
AS Roma's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.89 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.79 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Salernitana been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Salernitana in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 6 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent in our data was on 29 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2021, when AS Roma won Salernitana 0-4 AS Roma.
AS Roma's record when hosting Salernitana specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Salernitana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Salernitana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 4, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Salernitana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 January 2024: Salernitana 1-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Salernitana?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 80% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 32%, Salernitana 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AS Roma) and 47% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Salernitana in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Salernitana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Salernitana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of AS Roma's recent matches and 63% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Salernitana matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AS Roma's recent games and 47% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Salernitana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 68% of AS Roma's recent matches and 79% of Salernitana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Salernitana share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 1, as AS Roma and Salernitana drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.59 xG and Salernitana 1.10 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Salernitana outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.07 / defence 0.94 against Salernitana attack 0.92 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 48% | Draw 25% | Salernitana 27%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 42%, Salernitana 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Salernitana's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Salernitana (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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