AS Roma vs Monza – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (74%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as AS Roma face Monza.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Monza meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 29 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.70 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Monza have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Monza have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form favours the hosts. AS Roma's 2.50 PPG return is 1.10 points per game ahead of Monza's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours AS Roma, who have won 4 of the last 6 meetings against Monza — a 2D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2025, ended 4–0 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Monza — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 32% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 40% | Monza 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 2.42 xG and Monza 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.455 / defence 0.738 | Monza attack 0.854 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.738 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 40 AS Roma games / 2 Monza games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 74% | Draw 16% | Monza 10%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Monza 10.00. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 74% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Monza 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 74% | Draw 16% | Monza 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 49% | xG AS Roma 2.42 / Monza 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.455 / def 0.738 | Monza attack 0.854 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Monza xG
49%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Monza kick off?
AS Roma vs Monza is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
Where is AS Roma vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Monza part of?
AS Roma vs Monza is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 74% chance of winning, Monza a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both AS Roma and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
Record (6 meetings): AS Roma 4W | Draws 2 | Monza 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Monza in?
AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Monza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.46) and Monza's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Monza's attack (0.85x) against AS Roma's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.15
10%
9.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
AS Roma xG
Total xG
3.20
0.78
Monza xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.15
16%
Draw
9.91
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
46%
2.17
9%
11.22
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
1%
111.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 9.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.78 for Monza, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Monza?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 40 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.98 PPG on a 25W 4D 11L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza's form line: 22W 10D 8L from 40 games, 1.90 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.98 PPG for AS Roma against 1.90 for Monza. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.25 PPG from 20 outings (14W 3D 3L).
On the road, Monza have gone 9W 6D 5L from 20 away games — 1.65 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.65 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games; Monza in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Monza in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 games (1.98 PPG), while Monza have gone 22W 10D 8L in their last 40 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Monza away?
AS Roma's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.25 PPG; Monza away: 1.65 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Monza in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 4-0 on 24 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Monza — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 4, Monza have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2025, when AS Roma 4-0 Monza.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Monza?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 25%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (AS Roma) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Monza in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of AS Roma's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of AS Roma's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Monza tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Monza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.