AS Roma 4-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Lecce encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Olimpico plays host to AS Roma versus Lecce in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 7 December 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AS Roma have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadio Olimpico — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Lecce (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for AS Roma against 0.90 for Lecce. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: AS Roma 2W, Lecce 0W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Lecce — key trading statistics (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 60% versus Lecce 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 56% | Lecce 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.09 xG and Lecce 0.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.924 / defence 0.979 | Lecce attack 0.605 / defence 0.874. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.270. Data: 52 AS Roma games / 52 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 42% | Draw 34% | Lecce 24%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Lecce 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.84. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.84 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.84 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 28% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 50% | Lecce 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Dec 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 42% | Draw 34% | Lecce 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG AS Roma 1.09 / Lecce 0.75 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.924 / def 0.979 | Lecce attack 0.605 / def 0.874 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.270 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.75
Lecce xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Lecce kick off?
AS Roma vs Lecce kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 7 December 2024 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
AS Roma 4 - 1 Lecce.
Where is AS Roma vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Lecce part of?
AS Roma vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 42% chance of winning, Lecce a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both AS Roma and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 2W | Draws 2 | Lecce 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in?
AS Roma (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. Lecce (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (0.92) and Lecce's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.09 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.60x) against AS Roma's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.75.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
42%
2.36
34%
2.98
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.8%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.84
0.75
Lecce xG
2.36
42%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
47%
2.12
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
20%
5.02
8%
12.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.8 | 11.9 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 13.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.4 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.5%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.75 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.84.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 52 games, going 21W 13D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lecce sit at 0.98 PPG from 52 outings (11W 18D 23L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-D across their last five. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.48 PPG clear of Lecce — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 15W 4D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Lecce have taken 0.69 points per game from 26 outings (3W 9D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.75 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Lecce in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 21W 13D 18L in their last 52 games (1.46 PPG), while Lecce have gone 11W 18D 23L in their last 52 (0.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Lecce away?
AS Roma's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.88 PPG; Lecce away: 0.69 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 31 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
AS Roma go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 0-4 on 31 Aug 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
7
AS Roma
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Lecce?
From 9 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 7, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 31 August 2026, when Lecce 0-4 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Lecce?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Lecce see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 54%, Lecce 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AS Roma) and 31% (Lecce).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Lecce in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AS Roma's recent matches and 35% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AS Roma's recent games and 31% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Lecce tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Lecce in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Lecce 4-1 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.09 xG and Lecce 0.75 xG, a combined 1.84. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.92 / defence 0.98 against Lecce attack 0.60 / defence 0.87, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 42% | Draw 34% | Lecce 24%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 56%, Lecce 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Lecce's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.81 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.