AS Roma 3-3 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 27 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 1 March 2026, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, AS Roma have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's home record at Stadio Olimpico: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Juventus — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventus away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 2.00 PPG, Juventus 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
Juventus have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 9 encounters against AS Roma's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Juventus winning.
It is worth noting that Juventus have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Juventus in-play and half-time data (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 39% versus Juventus 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (AS Roma 34% | Juventus 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.42 xG and Juventus 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.217 / defence 0.616 | Juventus attack 1.198 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.241 / away 1.183. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.616 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 64 AS Roma games / 64 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 50% | Draw 27% | Juventus 23%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.00 | Draw 3.70 | Juventus 4.35. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 44%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Juventus 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 50% | Draw 27% | Juventus 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG AS Roma 1.42 / Juventus 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.217 / def 0.616 | Juventus attack 1.198 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.241 / away 1.183 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Juventus xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Juventus kick off?
AS Roma vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 1 March 2026 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
AS Roma 3 - 3 Juventus.
Where is AS Roma vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Juventus part of?
AS Roma vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 50% chance of winning, Juventus a 23% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both AS Roma and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Juventus?
Record (9 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 4 | Juventus 4W.
What form are AS Roma and Juventus in?
AS Roma (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Juventus (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.22x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
50%
2.01
27%
3.69
23%
4.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.29
0.87
Juventus xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
4.32
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
21%
4.82
6%
17.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.87 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 64 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.86 PPG on a 36W 11D 17L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 31W 23D 10L from 64 games, 1.81 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-L. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.86 PPG, Juventus on 1.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.16 PPG from 32 outings (22W 3D 7L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 13W 11D 8L from 32 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.58 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Juventus in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Juventus in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 36W 11D 17L in their last 64 games (1.86 PPG), while Juventus have gone 31W 23D 10L in their last 64 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Juventus away?
AS Roma's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.16 PPG; Juventus away: 1.56 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Juventus in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 1, Juventus have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 38%, Juventus 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (AS Roma) and 41% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Juventus in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of AS Roma's recent matches and 53% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of AS Roma's recent games and 41% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Juventus tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Juventus in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Juventus share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 27, as AS Roma and Juventus drew 3-3 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.42 xG and Juventus 0.87 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventus outscored their 0.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.22 / defence 0.62 against Juventus attack 1.20 / defence 0.94, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 50% | Draw 27% | Juventus 23%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 34%, Juventus 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.86 PPG, Juventus 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Juventus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.