AS Roma 2-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 18 sees Fiorentina travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Sunday 15 January 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadio Olimpico — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Fiorentina — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 1.80 PPG, Fiorentina 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Fiorentina and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2022, ended 0–2 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AS Roma trading profile (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Fiorentina trading profile (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 49% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 47% | Fiorentina 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.04 xG and Fiorentina 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.818 / defence 0.766 | Fiorentina attack 0.925 / defence 0.882. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.163. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.766 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 AS Roma games / 55 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 39% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 28%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Fiorentina 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.87 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 30% | Fiorentina 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Jan 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 39% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG AS Roma 1.04 / Fiorentina 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.818 / def 0.766 | Fiorentina attack 0.925 / def 0.882 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Fiorentina xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Fiorentina kick off?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 15 January 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
AS Roma 2 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is AS Roma vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Fiorentina part of?
AS Roma vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 39% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both AS Roma and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 0.82x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Fiorentina's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
39%
2.54
33%
3.02
28%
3.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
AS Roma xG
Total xG
1.87
0.82
Fiorentina xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.62
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
35%
2.84
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
10%
10.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.5 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.2%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.82 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
AS Roma's recent record stands at 27W 13D 15L from 55 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-D-D-W-D in the last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina, meanwhile, have gone 25W 10D 20L across 55 games — 1.55 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.71 PPG, Fiorentina on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Fiorentina's away record stands at 8W 5D 14L across 27 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.55 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fiorentina's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
AS Roma are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.45 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 27W 13D 15L in their last 55 games (1.71 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 25W 10D 20L in their last 55 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Fiorentina away?
AS Roma's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.81 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.07 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between AS Roma and Fiorentina runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
AS Roma have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Fiorentina specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AS Roma
2
Draws
3
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 5, Fiorentina have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Fiorentina?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 37%, Fiorentina 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AS Roma) and 52% (Fiorentina).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; AS Roma have failed to score in 26% of games; Fiorentina in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of AS Roma's recent matches and 63% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AS Roma's recent games and 52% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Fiorentina tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fiorentina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Fiorentina 2-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.04 xG and Fiorentina 0.82 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Fiorentina landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.82 / defence 0.77 against Fiorentina attack 0.93 / defence 0.88, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 39% | Draw 33% | Fiorentina 28%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 47%, Fiorentina 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.71 PPG, Fiorentina 1.55 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.