AS Roma 1-0 Cremonese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates AS Roma at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Cremonese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Cremonese travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma. The game is scheduled for Monday 22 August 2022, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, AS Roma stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Olimpico, AS Roma have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico.
Across all Serie A games this season, Cremonese have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cremonese have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cremonese away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: AS Roma 1.80 PPG, Cremonese 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Cremonese in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 49% versus Cremonese 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 49% | Cremonese 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.81 xG and Cremonese 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 0.992 / defence 0.914 | Cremonese attack 0.992 / defence 1.310. League average goals — home 1.390 / away 1.221. Cremonese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.310 — this is suppressing AS Roma's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 AS Roma games / 1 Cremonese games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 52% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 22%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.92 | Draw 3.85 | Cremonese 4.55. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 50% | Cremonese 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Cremonese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Monday 22 Aug 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 52% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG AS Roma 1.81 / Cremonese 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 0.992 / def 0.914 | Cremonese attack 0.992 / def 1.310 | league avg home 1.390 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Cremonese xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Cremonese kick off?
AS Roma vs Cremonese kicked off at 17:30 on Monday 22 August 2022 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Cremonese?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Cremonese.
Where is AS Roma vs Cremonese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Cremonese part of?
AS Roma vs Cremonese is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 52% chance of winning, Cremonese a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both AS Roma and Cremonese will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Cremonese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cremonese?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are AS Roma and Cremonese in?
AS Roma (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. Cremonese (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Cremonese's defensive record (1.31x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.81. The same calculation in reverse, Cremonese's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
52%
1.92
26%
3.80
22%
4.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.92
1.11
Cremonese xG
1.92
52%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.64
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
16%
6.10
Win to Nil
17%
5.80
4%
28.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Cremonese expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.11 for Cremonese, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Cremonese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 39 games, going 19W 9D 11L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cremonese sit at 1.77 PPG from 39 outings (20W 9D 10L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cremonese, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.69 PPG, Cremonese on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 10W 6D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Cremonese have taken 1.58 points per game from 19 outings (9W 3D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Cremonese are on 1.51 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Cremonese
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Cremonese in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 19W 9D 11L in their last 39 games (1.69 PPG), while Cremonese have gone 20W 9D 10L in their last 39 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Cremonese away?
AS Roma's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.89 PPG; Cremonese away: 1.58 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Cremonese been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Cremonese in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Feb 2026, when AS Roma won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
AS Roma's record when hosting Cremonese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
AS Roma
0
Draws
1
Cremonese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Cremonese?
From 4 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 3, Cremonese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Cremonese last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when AS Roma 3-0 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Cremonese?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 42%, Cremonese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AS Roma) and 58% (Cremonese).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Cremonese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Cremonese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of AS Roma's recent matches and 58% of Cremonese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Cremonese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AS Roma's recent games and 58% of Cremonese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Cremonese tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cremonese in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Cremonese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Cremonese 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.81 xG and Cremonese 1.11 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Cremonese landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 0.99 / defence 0.91 against Cremonese attack 0.99 / defence 1.31, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 52% | Draw 26% | Cremonese 22%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 49%, Cremonese 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cremonese's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.69 PPG, Cremonese 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the AS Roma win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Cremonese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.