AC Milan vs AS Roma – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates AS Roma at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AC Milan vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
plays host to AC Milan versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
AC Milan have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. AC Milan have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at , AC Milan have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma away from home this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 10 previous meetings, AC Milan are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 4 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.9 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AC Milan and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AC Milan — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
AS Roma — key trading statistics (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AC Milan 48% versus AS Roma 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AC Milan 45% | AS Roma 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AC Milan 1.15 xG and AS Roma 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AC Milan attack 1.077 / defence 0.924 | AS Roma attack 1.362 / defence 0.914. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. AS Roma have an above-average attack strength of 1.362 — the away xG of 1.55 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 AC Milan games / 40 AS Roma games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: AC Milan 28% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 47%. Fair-value odds: AC Milan 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | AS Roma 2.13. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
AC Milan dominate the H2H record, yet AS Roma are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: AC Milan 40% | AS Roma 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AC Milan vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AC Milan 28% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG AC Milan 1.15 / AS Roma 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: AC Milan attack 1.077 / def 0.924 | AS Roma attack 1.362 / def 0.914 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
AC Milan xG
Expected Goals
1.55
AS Roma xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AC Milan vs AS Roma kick off?
AC Milan vs AS Roma is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 16 May 2027.
What competition is AC Milan vs AS Roma part of?
AC Milan vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives AC Milan a 28% chance of winning, AS Roma a 47% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both AC Milan and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will AC Milan vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and AS Roma?
Record (10 meetings): AC Milan 5W | Draws 4 | AS Roma 1W.
What form are AC Milan and AS Roma in?
AC Milan (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
AC Milan's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.36x) against AC Milan's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.55.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
28%
3.55
25%
3.97
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
AC Milan xG
Total xG
2.70
1.55
AS Roma xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
21%
4.72
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
6%
16.75
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.9 | 5.3 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are AC Milan and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for AC Milan and 1.55 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for AC Milan vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AC Milan's recent record stands at 22W 10D 8L from 40 games, a 1.90 PPG return, with L-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for AC Milan, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 25W 4D 11L across 40 games — 1.98 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.90 PPG for AC Milan against 1.98 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AC Milan have managed 10W 5D 5L from 20 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 11W 1D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.70 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AC Milan are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.68 scored and 0.78 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; AS Roma in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AC Milan
Early Season
AS Roma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AC Milan and AS Roma in coming into this match?
AC Milan have gone 22W 10D 8L in their last 40 games (1.90 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 25W 4D 11L in their last 40 (1.98 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AC Milan at home or AS Roma away?
AC Milan's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AC Milan at home: 1.75 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.70 PPG.
Have AC Milan or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
AC Milan have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, AS Roma in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AC Milan have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
AC Milan
4
Draws
1
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AC Milan and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, AC Milan have won 5, AS Roma have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did AC Milan and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 AC Milan.
Who has won more matches between AC Milan and AS Roma?
AC Milan have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AC Milan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AC Milan 50%, AS Roma 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (AC Milan) and 45% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AC Milan keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; AS Roma in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AC Milan home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AC Milan play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of AC Milan's recent matches and 40% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AC Milan vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of AC Milan's recent games and 45% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AC Milan and AS Roma tend to score early?
AC Milan have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.