Waterford 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Waterford vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Waterford welcome Shelbourne to Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 21). Kick-off is Thursday 13 June 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waterford — last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Across their last 10 games, Shelbourne have recorded 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shelbourne's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Shelbourne — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.20 xG and Shelbourne 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.364 / defence 1.203 | Shelbourne attack 1.150 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.201 / away 0.986. Waterford carry an above-average attack rating of 1.364 — their 1.20 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Shelbourne bring a tight defence (rating 0.734, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Waterford's projected output down. Waterford's defence rating of 1.203 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Shelbourne's projected output up. Data: built from Waterford's last 20 games and Shelbourne's last 57.
Result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 41%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.04 | Draw 3.78 | Shelbourne 2.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waterford's last 2 games and Shelbourne's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 21 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Thursday 13 June 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 33% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Waterford 1.20 / Shelbourne 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.364 / def 1.203 | Shelbourne attack 1.150 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.201 / away 0.986 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Shelbourne xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Shelbourne kick off?
Waterford vs Shelbourne kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Thursday 13 June 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Waterford 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Waterford vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shelbourne part of?
Waterford vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 21) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 33% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Waterford and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Waterford vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (1.36x league average) is weighed against Shelbourne's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Shelbourne's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 20 games and Shelbourne's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.3%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
33%
3.04
26%
3.78
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.57
1.36
Shelbourne xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
8%
11.88
12%
8.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Waterford and 1.36 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Shelbourne carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 3.50 scored and 2.00 conceded. Shelbourne's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Shelbourne in 100%.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Shelbourne
Early Season
Waterford (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Early Season
Shelbourne
Early Season
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Waterford have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
Waterford's record when hosting Shelbourne specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Shelbourne have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Shelbourne 2-3 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Shelbourne matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Waterford's games and 100% of Shelbourne's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Waterford and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Waterford's matches and 100% of Shelbourne's.
Do Waterford and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 100% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Waterford 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Waterford 0-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.20 xG and Shelbourne 1.36 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Waterford fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.36 / defence 1.20 against Shelbourne attack 1.15 / defence 0.73, drawn from 20/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 33% | Draw 26% | Shelbourne 41%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Shelbourne 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Shelbourne arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Waterford managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Shelbourne managed 1 against a 3.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.