Waterford 0-0 Galway United – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Galway United at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waterford face Galway United.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Waterford Regional Sports Centre plays host to Waterford versus Galway United in Premier Division (matchday 10). Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Waterford have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.89 xG and Galway United 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.922 / defence 1.140 | Galway United attack 0.882 / defence 0.826. League average goals — home 1.174 / away 1.074. Data: built from Waterford's last 9 games and Galway United's last 8.
Result probabilities: Waterford 30% | Draw 31% | Galway United 39%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.37 | Draw 3.23 | Galway United 2.54. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Galway United as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Galway United if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 10 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 12 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 30% | Draw 31% | Galway United 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Waterford 0.89 / Galway United 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.922 / def 1.140 | Galway United attack 0.882 / def 0.826 | league avg home 1.174 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Galway United (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Galway United xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Galway United FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Galway United kick off?
Waterford vs Galway United kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 12 April 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Galway United?
Waterford 0 - 0 Galway United.
Where is Waterford vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Galway United part of?
Waterford vs Galway United is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 10) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 30% chance of winning, Galway United a 39% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Galway United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Waterford and Galway United will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Waterford vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Waterford's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Galway United's defensive record (0.83x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. Flip it around — Galway United's attack (0.88x) against Waterford's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 9 games and Galway United's last 8 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Galway United Win
30%
3.37
31%
3.23
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Waterford xG
Total xG
1.97
1.08
Galway United xG
3.37
30%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
10%
9.91
16%
6.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 15.0 | 8.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Galway United Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Waterford and 1.08 for Galway United, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Waterford (Home) vs Galway United (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Pre-Season
Galway United
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Waterford and Galway United, the earliest from July 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 19 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 2W 2D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Galway United — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
3
Draws
4
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Galway United H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Galway United?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Galway United have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Galway United last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 October 2026: Waterford 3-2 Galway United.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Galway United?
Galway United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Waterford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 10, as Waterford and Galway United drew 0-0 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.89 xG and Galway United 1.08 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Waterford fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Galway United landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.92 / defence 1.14 against Galway United attack 0.88 / defence 0.83, drawn from 9/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 30% | Draw 31% | Galway United 39%, with Galway United to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.