Waterford 4-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Waterford and Finn Harps meet at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Waterford's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Waterford have posted 4W 2D 4L at Waterford Regional Sports Centre — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 2.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this season.
Finn Harps (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W D L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Waterford 1W, Finn Harps 2W, 0D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Jul 2021, ended 1–0 with Waterford winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Waterford half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Finn Harps half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 45% versus Finn Harps 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 52% | Finn Harps 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.11 xG and Finn Harps 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.862 / defence 1.173 | Finn Harps attack 0.946 / defence 1.164. League average goals — home 1.110 / away 1.212. Data: 29 Waterford games / 29 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 42%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Finn Harps 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Waterford 50% | Finn Harps 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 15 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 31% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Waterford 1.11 / Finn Harps 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.862 / def 1.173 | Finn Harps attack 0.946 / def 1.164 | league avg home 1.110 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Finn Harps xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Finn Harps kick off?
Waterford vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 October 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Waterford 4 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is Waterford vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Finn Harps part of?
Waterford vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 31% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Waterford and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Finn Harps?
Record (3 meetings): Waterford 1W | Draws 0 | Finn Harps 2W.
What form are Waterford and Finn Harps in?
Waterford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Finn Harps (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.86) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Finn Harps's attack (0.95x) against Waterford's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from 29/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
31%
3.23
27%
3.70
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.46
1.34
Finn Harps xG
3.23
31%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
26%
3.84
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
8%
12.41
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.5 | 7.7 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.1 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Waterford and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Waterford and 1.34 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Finn Harps?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Waterford come into this having played 29 games, going 10W 3D 16L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D.
On the other side, Finn Harps sit at 1.28 PPG from 29 outings (10W 7D 12L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Waterford against 1.28 for Finn Harps. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Waterford's home form reads 5W 2D 7L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Finn Harps have taken 1.36 points per game from 14 outings (5W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Waterford are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.14 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 10W 3D 16L in their last 29 games (1.14 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 10W 7D 12L in their last 29 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Finn Harps away?
Finn Harps's away record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.21 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.36 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 October 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Waterford have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won 4-1 on 15 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Finn Harps — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Waterford
0
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Finn Harps?
From 4 meetings on record, Waterford have won 2, Finn Harps have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 15 October 2021, when Waterford 4-1 Finn Harps.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 43%, Finn Harps 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Waterford) and 57% (Finn Harps).
On the defensive side: Waterford have failed to score in 29% of games; Finn Harps in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Finn Harps?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Waterford's recent matches and 57% of Finn Harps's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Waterford vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Waterford's recent games and 57% of Finn Harps's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Waterford run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Finn Harps 4-1 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.11 xG and Finn Harps 1.34 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Waterford beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.86 / defence 1.17 against Finn Harps attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 31% | Draw 27% | Finn Harps 42%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Waterford win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 52%, Finn Harps 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Waterford 1.14 PPG, Finn Harps 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Waterford win broke the near-deadlock. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm. Finn Harps (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.