Waterford 0-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Waterford face Derry City.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division (matchday 12). Kick-off is Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Waterford — last 2 games: 1W 0D 1L, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market.
Across their last 10 games, Derry City have recorded 5W 4D 1L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.50 PPG versus Derry City's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.95 xG and Derry City 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.846 / defence 1.099 | Derry City attack 1.057 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 0.979. Data: built from Waterford's last 11 games and Derry City's last 48.
Result probabilities: Waterford 29% | Draw 32% | Derry City 39%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 3.42 | Draw 3.13 | Derry City 2.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.09 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Waterford's last 2 games and Derry City's last 10 away games) averaging 2.2 goals per game.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 12 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 26 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 29% | Draw 32% | Derry City 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% (Under 65%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Waterford 0.95 / Derry City 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.846 / def 1.099 | Derry City attack 1.057 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.130 / away 0.979 • Poisson stance: Derry City (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Derry City xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Waterford vs Derry City FAQs
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 26 April 2024 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 0 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 12) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 29% chance of winning, Derry City a 39% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (65%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.95. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Waterford's last 11 games and Derry City's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
29%
3.42
32%
3.13
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.09
1.14
Derry City xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
32%
3.12
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.68
15%
6.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 14.1 | 8.0 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Waterford vs Derry City Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Waterford and 1.14 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.50 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded. Derry City's attacking output running into Waterford's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City in 0%.
Defensively: Derry City in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Early Season
Derry City
Early Season
Waterford (Home) vs Derry City (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Waterford
Early Season
Derry City
Early Season
❓ Waterford vs Derry City Form FAQs
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Derry City have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Waterford or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Derry City in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 14 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won Derry City 7-2 Waterford.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Waterford vs Derry City H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 September 2026: Waterford 2-2 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Waterford vs Derry City Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Waterford and Derry City matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Waterford's recent matches and 0% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Waterford and Derry City matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Waterford's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Derry City cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Waterford 0-2 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.95 xG and Derry City 1.14 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Waterford fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Derry City outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.85 / defence 1.10 against Derry City attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 11/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 29% | Draw 32% | Derry City 39%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 50%, Derry City 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 1.50. Form held, and they took the win. Waterford managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.